$OIL

Been looking at the Polymarket for $XOP and the 'Will $XOP close above $200 by end of 2024?' markets. The current implied probabilities seem to be leaning pretty heavily towards 'yes,' but I'm not entirely convinced. With $XOP currently at $180.49 and $OIL bouncing around $28.42, I feel like there's a lot of optimistic future pricing baked in already. We've seen how quickly sentiment can shift in the energy sector, and while the day's movement looks positive, I just wonder if the market isn't getting a little ahead of itself here. Curious to hear if anyone sees a clearer path to $200 that I'm missing, or if you think the odds are overstating the likelihood.

Considering the recent NFP print, I'd put the probability of a 50 bps hike in the next FOMC meeting around 65-70%. The labor market remains tighter than many expected, which gives the Fed more room to continue their hawkish stance without immediately triggering significant unemployment concerns. The market's pricing seems to be catching up to this reality, though some stubborn resistance persists. We'll likely see a continued re-evaluation of forward rate expectations, which could put further pressure on $OIL as demand concerns mount, especially if this leads to a stronger dollar.

Anyone else finding the KYC/B process for onboarding a prop trading firm to Kalshi to be a bit of a bottleneck? We've explored getting some capital allocated to their markets, but the compliance documentation required, while understandable, feels pretty heavy. Specifically, navigating the beneficial ownership disclosures and entity verification for a non-US based operation has been more drawn out than anticipated. Curious if others have smooth-sailed through this or hit similar friction points.

Also, once past that, what's the typical lead time for establishing direct API access? The spreads and liquidity for some of their energy contracts ($OIL, $NATGAS) look interesting for short-term directional plays, but not if the infrastructure setup eats too much into our agility.