Been watching $CADUSD for a while now, and it's holding surprisingly well around this 0.7118 mark today. Given the current macro backdrop, specifically the divergence in central bank rhetoric between the BoC and the Fed, I'm starting to lean towards a potential retest of the 0.7150 level by month-end. My gut feeling, backed by a quick look at the dollar index and some energy price action, gives it about a 60% probability. What are others seeing that I might be missing?
The range has been pretty tight, but I think the market might be underpricing the BoC's willingness to remain hawkish longer than some peers, providing a bit of a tailwind for the CAD. Plus, any continued strength in oil could give it that extra push. Conversely, if US inflation numbers surprise on the high side next week, that 0.7100 level could definitely come back into play, but I'd put that scenario closer to a 40% chance. Just trying to figure out which way this thing is going to break.