$BRL

Hey everyone, been keeping an eye on $BRL futures lately and noticed something interesting around the 5.23-5.24 area. It seems to have acted as a pretty consistent resistance point on the daily chart for the past few sessions. We saw it poke above briefly today, hitting around 5.2396, but it didn't hold, currently trading closer to 5.2112.

My read on this is that if we get a decisive break and hold above 5.24 on a daily close, it could signal a potential shift in the near-term trend, opening up room to the upside. However, until then, that zone appears to be a ceiling. The risk to this perspective, of course, is any significant fundamental news out of Brazil or a major shift in broader EM sentiment. If it fails to even test that level again and starts to drift lower, then the current range might just hold or even see a move towards the 5.16 area again. Just my thoughts, curious to hear if others are seeing similar setups or have different interpretations.

Been looking at carry trades in EM FX, specifically countries with higher yields like $BRL or $ZAR, but struggling with the timing aspect. I get the basic premise: borrow low, lend high. But the volatility in these pairs often wipes out the interest differential fast. Are there specific macro conditions or market sentiments you seasoned folks watch for that make a carry trade in EM genuinely attractive and less like just picking up pennies in front of a steamroller? Or is it more about the tactical entry/exit than a sustained position?