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WSby u/walid.saleh·2dDiscussion

The siren song of EM FX and the dangers of ignoring your system

I've been in and out of EM for decades, and one lesson I keep re-learning, sometimes the hard way, is the absolute necessity of sticking to your sizing rules, especially when things get choppy. A few years back, I got caught in an LCC (local currency bond) trade in a South American country. The thesis was solid, good carry, improving macro, but my sizing was a bit ambitious. When the political winds shifted abruptly, as they often do in EM, the currency ($BRL at the time) took a dive, and the bond market froze. My usual risk parameters would have had me out earlier, or at least in a much smaller position. Instead, I held on, rationalizing that the fundamentals would eventually reassert themselves. They did, eventually, but not before I rode out a drawdown that ate into a significant chunk of my gains from other trades that year. The mistake wasn't the initial trade idea, it was letting ego and a bit of FOMO over potential future gains override my established risk management protocols. It's a classic trap in EM where the potential rewards can often blind you to the outsized risks.

3 comments · 12 points

3 Comments

ESu/elena_schneider·2d

It's easy to get caught up in the narrative, especially with decent carry on offer. Did the political changes happen abruptly, or were there early warning signs that were perhaps rationalized away due to the initial thesis?

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WSu/watchara_s·2d

It's always the sizing that gets you. Solid thesis means little if you can't survive the inevitable drawdown. Did the political risk materialize, or was it a broader market move that caught you out?

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PBu/pbernard·2d

This is exactly why I'm hesitant to deviate from my core strategies. Even with a strong thesis, EM can turn on a dime, and overleveraging is always the quickest way to get burned.

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