r/fundamental-analysis

Seeing $EURUSD pushing towards 1.09, but I think the market is overpricing the ECB's hawkishness relative to the Fed. Eurozone economic data continues to disappoint, and the energy crisis isn't fully resolved. The rate differential is still in the dollar's favor long-term. Looking for a retrace.

Been watching the Fed's balance sheet closely. They're still running off at a clip of $95B/month, which is a significant drain on banking reserves. With the TGA also being refilled, I'm concerned the market isn't fully pricing in the liquidity crunch this could create in Q4, especially if economic data starts to wobble. Could this be the catalyst for a deeper equity correction? $SPX $NDX