FreshForexTeam

XAUUSD: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00​

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Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569​

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The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30​

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Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

XAUUSD: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

Gold begins the week after a sharp decline triggered by reassessment of Fed policy prospects. The probability of a September rate hike has increased, US bond yields have risen, and dollar strength reduces the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit the depth of the correction. However, a sustained recovery will require easing of Fed rate expectations or weaker US labor market data. Until this happens, monetary factors retain their advantage and support the scenario for further XAUUSD decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

#SP500: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547​

The US stock market enters the week under pressure from rising yields and increased probability of a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns, while higher borrowing costs may reduce the attractiveness of highly valued stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

Focus will be on employment data and new corporate earnings. A strong labor market can strengthen expectations of policy tightening, while weak figures would ease pressure on the index. Until confirmation of a shift in expectations is received, the combination of high rates and geopolitical uncertainty keeps the priority on a #SP500 decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

#BRENT: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60​

Brent receives support due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Military actions near this key route increase the risk of supply disruptions and bring geopolitical premiums back into quotes, despite dollar strength.

Increased production and partial restoration of sea shipments may limit price rises. The market will also continue to assess inventory levels and demand prospects against the backdrop of tight Fed policy. However, as long as negotiations to stabilize the situation yield no results, the risk of supply disruption remains the main factor and supports the buying scenario for #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

U.S. inflation has once again forced investors to reassess their expectations for the Fed’s interest rate policy. The PCE price index — the central bank’s key inflation gauge — rose 3.7% year over year in July, while the core reading, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.3%. Both figures are still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

The market reaction has been cautious. The dollar is holding near an eight-day high, while the probability of a Fed rate hike as early as September is now estimated at around 40%. Investors are now turning their attention to Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak on August 28.

The Economy Is Giving the Fed No Easy Choice:

High inflation usually calls for tighter monetary policy, but the U.S. economy is simultaneously sending mixed signals.

In the second quarter, U.S. GDP grew by just 1.5% year over year. On the other hand, domestic demand proved more resilient than initially estimated, corporate profits increased, and business investment continues to receive support from massive spending on artificial intelligence.

As a result, the Fed has to choose between two risks: another rate hike could slow the economy even further, while a policy that is too accommodative could allow inflation to remain significantly above the target level.

Everything Now Depends on Jackson Hole:

The key event will be Kevin Warsh’s speech on August 28. Above all, the market will be looking for an answer to one question: how seriously is the Fed prepared to fight inflation if price growth remains around its current levels?

A more hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and push U.S. Treasury yields higher. For #SP500 and #NQ100, such a scenario would create additional pressure, as higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce the appeal of growth stocks.

If the Fed Chair instead signals that another rate hike can be avoided, the market reaction could be the opposite — the dollar could come under pressure, while stock indexes could receive support.

According to FreshForex analysts, the Fed is unlikely to give the market a reason to expect an imminent policy easing: inflation at 3.7% remains too high, making a signal of persistently high rates and a willingness to raise them again if inflation fails to slow the most likely scenario. For traders, this means a stronger dollar and increased downside risk for #SP500 and #NQ100, particularly the technology sector, which is the most sensitive to expensive financing.

The cryptocurrency market has delivered one of its strongest recoveries in recent months. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) climbed above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, gaining 23.6% over the past week—its second-best weekly performance since the beginning of 2021.

The rally extended across the market. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced more than 31% during the week, while Ripple (XRPUSD) surged by around 50%. At the same time, U.S. spot crypto ETFs recorded approximately $2.6 billion in net inflows, marking their strongest weekly result since last October.

What Drove the Rally?

1. Institutional investors returned. Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week, while Ethereum ETFs added nearly $700 million. The return of institutional demand has become one of the defining features of the current rally, setting it apart from previous short-lived rebounds.
2. U.S. Treasury yields declined. The U.S. Treasury expanded its long-term bond buyback program, helping ease pressure from elevated interest rates on risk assets and encouraging investors to return to cryptocurrencies.
3. The U.S. dollar weakened. A softer dollar traditionally boosts the appeal of alternative assets. In this environment, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed alongside gold as an asset that may benefit from concerns about currency depreciation.
4. Short sellers were caught off guard. Before the rally, Bitcoin had spent nearly six weeks trading in a narrow range, with many traders expecting the downtrend to continue. The breakout above resistance triggered a wave of short-covering, adding further momentum to the advance.

The technical picture has improved. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have moved back above their 200-day moving averages, a level widely used to assess long-term market trends. Meanwhile, Ethereum has recently been outperforming Bitcoin, a pattern that often signals growing risk appetite across the broader cryptocurrency market.

According to FreshForex analysts, now that Bitcoin has established itself above $80,000, buyers continue to hold the advantage. If ETF inflows remain strong and U.S. Treasury yields continue to ease, BTC could move toward the $85,000–90,000 range. Should the current momentum persist, the market may once again begin discussing the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the $100,000 level.

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XAUUSD: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00​

Gold starts the week with sustained demand amid a weaker US dollar and renewed concerns about the stability of the US debt market. The US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of long-term bonds after the 30-year yield climbed toward multi-year highs has strengthened demand for defensive assets.

XAUUSD has already posted a notable advance, so further upside will depend on continued pressure on the dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech and upcoming inflation data. Elevated yields limit gold’s potential, but as long as fiscal concerns persist, the base-case scenario remains supportive of further gains.

Trading idea: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00

#SP500: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570​

#SP500 enters the week after declining over the previous five sessions, with high borrowing costs remaining the main constraint. Long-term US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs, raising the hurdle for equity valuations and creating particular pressure on the technology sector.

The market is also awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole. Strong corporate results could support equities, but the combination of expensive financing, inflation risks, and uncertainty over interest rates leaves the weekly outlook vulnerable. The base-case scenario remains tilted toward further downside.

Trading idea: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570

#BRENT: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20​

Brent starts the week after a strong advance, while the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated. The United States is preparing new sanctions against Iran and its trading partners, while vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels. This keeps supply disruption risks in focus and supports oil prices.

Offsetting factors include higher US commercial crude inventories and the OPEC+ decision to raise September production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day. However, the IEA estimates that the market will remain in deficit during the third quarter. If supply constraints persist, the base-case weekly scenario allows for a recovery in #BRENT.

Trading idea: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20