r/macro-events

The latest Fed dot plot projections are definitely coloring how I'm looking at things for the next few quarters. While the market has largely priced in a plateau, the persistent hawkish lean in the longer-term projections suggests we can't completely rule out a 'higher for longer' scenario for rates. This keeps me leaning into segments that are less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, or those with strong idiosyncratic growth drivers. I'm keeping a close eye on defensives and quality growth, but also watching for opportunities in areas like renewables that could see increased investment if the broader economic picture stays resilient but with tighter credit. Conversely, I'm staying cautious on more speculative, high-beta plays where valuation is largely dependent on easy money. It's a tricky balance, but the Fed's stance is the primary current shaping my watchlist; it feels like the big rotation could still be ahead of us if those dots shift again.

Watching the latest CPI read out of Brazil. It's coming in higher than anticipated, which immediately puts pressure on Copom to maintain their hawkish stance. We've seen $EWZ trading sideways, currently around 36.42, with a slight dip today. The sustained inflation could lead to continued higher rates for longer, potentially dampening the recovery story for Brazilian equities. Not making any moves yet, but definitely keeping a close eye on the 36.20 level for support.

The latest hawkish lean from some Fed members on the taper timeline is certainly on my radar, particularly with last week's employment numbers not quite hitting the mark. While it's not a full-blown red flag yet, it does add another layer of caution. I'm keeping a close eye on how this sentiment translates into the bond market, as any sustained upward pressure on yields could start to cool off growth-oriented sectors. For now, names like $ADBE, currently trading around $251.34, are holding their ground, but I'm watching for any signs of institutional rotation out of higher-multiple tech into more value-oriented plays if this narrative strengthens. It's about risk appetite, and that's often the first thing to shift when the cost of capital starts to look less accommodative. No immediate drastic moves, but definitely adjusting my sensitivity to rate talk.

With the latest Q1 GDP numbers coming in softer than expected, I'm watching closely to see if the Fed's hawkish tone might temper a bit sooner than anticipated, potentially impacting the $UGAZ plays on my watchlist if energy demand projections shift.

Been following the Fed commentary pretty closely the last few days, especially the subtle shifts in tone around future rate hikes. While they're still talking data-dependent, there's a growing sense that the market might be getting ahead of itself in pricing in cuts too soon. This makes me wonder about the implications for emerging market currencies.

Specifically, looking at something like $USDMXN, currently around 17.30894. If the market's 'higher for longer' narrative for US rates strengthens, does that put renewed pressure on the peso, or is its recent resilience tied more to domestic factors and oil prices? Trying to figure out if there's a potential short-term long USD trade forming if the rate differential widens more than expected again. Keeping an eye on any significant moves from its current range of 17.297–17.333.

Watching $SAP today, up over 3.75% to 190.50, really makes you wonder if enterprise software is starting to decouple from broader macro jitters. We've been seeing this persistent narrative about higher rates squeezing tech, yet SAP seems to be shrugging it off, particularly after their latest earnings. It's a bit of a head-scratcher when you consider the general economic slowdown fears.

It makes me think about what's really driving these moves. Are companies still investing heavily in digital transformation, regardless of borrowing costs? Or is this just a sector-specific re-rating based on their cloud growth story? Definitely has me looking closer at the whole enterprise software basket on my watchlist, specifically trying to parse out the 'must-have' solutions from the 'nice-to-haves' if the economy does soften further.

With the upcoming CPI release, I'm putting the odds of Fed holding rates steady in June at about 65%. Core inflation showing persistent stickiness, despite headline softening. Even if we see a slight dip in core, the Fed's recent hawkish rhetoric suggests they'll want more than one data point to pivot. We're likely in a 'wait and see' for another meeting or two, unless CPI is a massive downside surprise.

Watching the March FOMC closely. The market is currently pricing in a terminal rate somewhere around 4.9% by May/June, but I'm leaning towards the Fed's dot plot, which will likely still show 5.25% or higher for 2023. Given recent CPI and employment data, the 'higher for longer' narrative has legs. I'd put the odds of the median dot for 2023 at 5.25% or above at roughly 65%. If this happens, expect some renewed dollar strength and a potential retest of recent lows in growth equities. Conversely, if they start signaling a pause sooner, $NZDCAD might see some immediate pressure, though fundamentals for NZD remain decent. The divergence between market pricing and Fed signaling is the key setup here.

The latest Fed comments, even after a mixed CPI, maintain a surprisingly hawkish tone. It makes me question how much upside runway is left for things like $UGAZ, currently at 10.82, if the rate environment tightens further than anticipated.

Watching the $CORN market today, it's been a bit of a rollercoaster, touching 17.76 earlier and now pulling back to 17.65. The question for me is whether we see a sustained push back above the 17.80 level by month-end, or if this current consolidation has more legs.

My take is that a retest and sustained break above 17.80, holding that level into the close of the month, seems to be about a 40% probability. The drivers for this would likely need to be a renewed narrative around supply chain disruptions, or perhaps a significant shift in weather forecasts for key growing regions. Absent strong fundamental catalysts, the current range-bound behavior around this 17.50-17.75 area could very well persist, with resistance proving sticky. We've seen a few probes higher rejected, suggesting the buying pressure isn't overwhelmingly aggressive just yet. It's not a market I'd bet heavily on either side of at this precise moment without further clarity.

The $NG reaction today to inventory was, shall we say, muted, closing at $5.83 after touching $5.705 earlier. Feels like the market is already looking past the near-term supply picture and more towards longer-range weather forecasts and export demand dynamics. I'm keeping an eye on whether this resistance around $6 holds, as a clear break could signal renewed bullish sentiment, but right now it feels like a lot of the juice is out of this move for the immediate term. My watchlist is heavy on producers for now, but considering some short-term puts if we can't find conviction above $5.90 soon.

Been watching $NG pretty closely today, especially with that dip earlier hitting $5.705 before rebounding. The sentiment feels pretty bearish right now, but there's an underlying tightness in the supply picture that keeps me from being outright negative. Looking at the charts and some of the broader energy macro, I'd put the odds of $NG hitting $6.00 by month-end at around 35-40%. We've got winter demand still to play out in some regions, and any unexpected colder snaps could easily provide the spark. However, the current momentum is clearly to the downside, and there aren't any immediate catalysts on the horizon that scream 'breakout.' It's a tricky one, could go either way with a strong conviction.

Watching $SAP today, up over 1.5% to 183.62, it's a decent move but still feels like Europe's tech sector is playing catch-up compared to the US. We've seen a lot of enthusiasm for AI, sure, but the underlying economic data from the Eurozone often feels like a drag on these companies.

My watchlist is heavily weighted towards US big tech for now, even with their already high valuations. Until we see clearer signs of sustained economic strength or a more aggressive push towards innovation funding in Europe, companies like SAP, while solid, might struggle to maintain the kind of growth multiples their American counterparts command.

The Fed's hawkish stance post a largely in-line CPI print suggests they're still more concerned about inflation stickiness than growth, which has me leaning towards trimming some of my emerging market exposure like $EWZ, despite its modest upside today. It just doesn't feel like the right environment to be aggressively long EM.

That $BRN jump to 1.03 today after Saudi comments about supply definitely has me rethinking my short-term thesis for a few names, especially with $US30 pushing 52485.03. I'm watching to see if this energy bump starts feeding into inflation concerns again and how the market prices that in over the next few sessions, particularly for sectors that might benefit or suffer from higher input costs.

Watching $USDSEK closely here. We've seen it push down to 9.5093 today, and the broader trend for the past few weeks seems pretty clear. Given the recent dovish comments filtering out of the Riksbank and the general USD weakness post-CPI last week, I'd put the odds of seeing 9.50 or lower by Friday's close at about 65-70%. We just need a bit more follow-through on that momentum. If we break that 9.50 psychological level, things could accelerate quickly.

Been watching the shifting sentiment around Fed rates, especially after the latest dot plot. While the market seems to be pricing in cuts sooner than the Fed's own projections, the recent CPI data, though a bit of a mixed bag, still highlights some stickiness. It's making me reconsider some of my more aggressive long plays that are heavily dependent on a swift dovish pivot. I'm keeping a closer eye on sectors that perform well in a 'higher for longer' rate environment, or at least those less sensitive to borrowing costs. For instance, tech names with strong balance sheets and consistent free cash flow, rather than speculative growth, are looking more attractive. The move in $ETHUSD today, while positive, feels like a short-term bounce within a broader wait-and-see. It's less about the daily fluctuations in something like $DKNG and more about the underlying current from the central banks.

I'm giving $EWZ about 65% odds to stay within the 35.50-37.50 range through month-end, assuming no major political surprises after the recent election noise and considering the existing range-bound action between 36.145 and 36.84.

The $IDR has taken a decent hit, currently down almost 4% at 28.07, hitting day lows around 29.14 before a slight rebound. This volatility, even with $PYUSD holding steady at 0.99962, suggests a reaction to local political news creating some capital outflow pressure or just broad uncertainty. It's on my radar for any ripple effects into regional FX or if it becomes a signal for broader emerging market sentiment.

The latest $US30 run, hitting over 52485 today, makes me wonder how much of the good news is already baked in, especially with whispers of a potentially more hawkish Fed stance later this year. I'm focusing my watchlist on sectors with strong Q2 earnings beats that also demonstrate pricing power, as these might be more resilient if we see any shifts in rate hike expectations. It's less about the current level and more about anticipating how macro sentiment could pivot on the next CPI read or employment figures, which could quickly reprice things.

Watching the $SPCX move today, down to 108.37, it's certainly got me thinking about the Fed's stance coming up. We've seen a pretty consistent hawkish tilt, but the market's been pricing in cuts for a while now. My gut feeling, looking at recent employment data and stubbornly sticky inflation reads, is that the Fed will likely maintain a 'higher for longer' narrative, even if they don't explicitly hike at the next meeting. I'd put the probability of them keeping rates unchanged, but with forward guidance leaning hawkish, at around 65-70%.

The alternative, a more dovish tone to support the economy, seems less probable right now given their dual mandate and the recent run of decent economic prints. A genuine shift towards dovishness, hinting at cuts sooner than expected, I'd peg at closer to 20-25%. The remaining 5-10% is for some unexpected curveball – maybe a surprisingly weak CPI print out of left field, or some geopolitical event that forces their hand. I'm not seeing any real signs of that right now though. It feels like we're in a holding pattern where the Fed needs more data before they can confidently signal a pivot, and the market is just itching for that signal.

Been watching $USDMXN with particular interest lately, especially with the Banxico meeting minutes due next week and the general sentiment around LatAm central banks. Currently, we're hovering around 17.32, which feels like a bit of a psychological line in the sand given the resilience we've seen on the MXN side.

My gut, backed by a quick mental scan of recent rhetoric and the persistent strength in the labor market data coming out of Mexico, suggests that Banxico is likely to maintain a relatively hawkish tone, or at least avoid any dovish surprises. They've shown a willingness to be independent from the Fed's pace. If we see those minutes confirm this stance, and especially if the Fed continues to talk up 'higher for longer' in a tempered way, I'd put the probability of $USDMXN closing out the month below 17.20 at roughly 60%. The alternative, a break above 17.40 and heading towards 17.50, feels less likely, maybe 30%, unless there's a significant external shock or a truly unexpected dovish pivot from Banxico. The remaining 10% is just sideways chop around here. It's a nuanced play, not just about rate differentials but also about capital flows and general market risk appetite which still seems to favor carry trades in this environment.

Watching $USLV today, down to 12.96, a decent dip from its daily high, probably on that persistent 'higher for longer' rate talk starting to make the rounds again after the latest Fed commentary. It's interesting how quickly sentiment pivots on these short-term moves, especially in the more volatile leveraged plays. For my part, I'm still keeping a close eye on the broader commodity space. If inflation pressures do prove stickier, as some are suggesting, then the current pullback could present an interesting entry point for a longer-term play on precious metals as a hedge. Just something to consider for the watchlist, not a call.

Watching the March FOMC very closely this week, particularly the updated dot plot. The market has largely priced in rate cuts starting around June, but the recent CPI and employment data have definitely muddied those waters. There's a growing divergence between market expectations and what the Fed might actually signal.

My take is that we'll likely see the median dot plot for 2024 shift slightly higher, perhaps from the prior 3 cuts to 2 cuts. I'd assign a 65% probability to this outcome. The Fed, in my view, is still very much data-dependent and the stickiness of inflation, even if moderating, coupled with a robust labor market, gives them little imperative to rush. A scenario where they maintain the 3 cuts but strongly reiterate a 'higher for longer' stance beyond 2024 for terminal rate is also possible, maybe 25% probability. This would still temper market enthusiasm for aggressive easing. A truly dovish surprise, signalling more than 3 cuts, feels like a long shot, perhaps 10%. The $US30 currently sits around 52485.03, and any hawkish lean could see it retrace towards the lower end of the recent range, while a dovish tilt might push it towards 53000 quite quickly. The market is very sensitive to any nuance here.

Those CPI figures came in a bit hotter than some expected, and I'm wondering if this shifts the narrative for the Fed's next meeting. Thinking this could keep pressure on bond yields, which might explain why I'm seeing some of my tech watchlist pull back a touch. Definitely keeping an eye on the Fed rhetoric this week to see if they lean into the "higher for longer" sentiment or try to smooth things over.

Watching the fed's narrative on rate cuts very closely. While the market's priced in a cut by June for a while, recent inflation prints (PCE, CPI) and a surprisingly resilient jobs market make that increasingly less probable. I'd put the odds of a cut in June at less than 30% now. We're more likely to see a hold through Q2, with any potential cut pushed into Q3, possibly September. The Fed seems genuinely committed to seeing more sustained evidence of inflation moving towards target before making any moves, even if it means some short-term economic friction. This could mean a longer 'higher for longer' stance than many initially anticipated, particularly if wage growth doesn't ease up.

Considering the latest CPI print, which, while not a disaster, didn't provide the clear disinflationary signal many were hoping for, I'm leaning towards the Fed's March dot plot showing a slightly more hawkish stance. I'd give it about a 60% probability that the median forecast for 2024 rate cuts shifts to two from the previously hinted three. The market seems to have front-run an aggressive easing cycle, and Powell might use the opportunity to re-anchor expectations more cautiously, especially with the labor market still resilient. A single basis point shift in $EURUSD would be a minor tremor, but if it translates to a more pronounced hawkish leaning for the year, we could see some recalibration.

ส่วนตัวมองว่า $DOGE น่าจะติดแนวต้านสำคัญแถวๆ 0.070-0.071 ไม่น่าจะทะลุได้ง่ายๆ ในช่วงปลายเดือนนี้ มีโอกาสราวๆ 60-70% ที่จะเห็นการเทรดอยู่ในกรอบ 0.068-0.070 เป็นหลัก เหตุผลหลักๆ คือปริมาณการซื้อขายที่ยังค่อนข้างเบาบางและไม่มี catalysts ใหม่ๆ ที่จะมาขับเคลื่อนราคาได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ ประกอบกับภาพรวมตลาดคริปโตที่ยังคงแกว่งตัวในกรอบกว้างๆ รอความชัดเจนจากปัจจัยมหภาคอย่างอัตราเงินเฟ้อและทิศทางดอกเบี้ยของ Fed การเก็งกำไรระยะสั้นในสินทรัพย์เสี่ยงสูงแบบนี้จึงค่อนข้างมีความผันผวนสูงและ upside ค่อนข้างจำกัดในตอนนี้

Been watching $USDSEK closely the past few days, especially with the Riksbank's recent dovish tilt. Today's movement up to 9.71321 feels like it's confirming some of that underlying weakness in SEK. With the general macro uncertainty still elevated and the dollar showing resilience, I'm leaning towards a continued grind higher. I'd put the odds of hitting 9.80 before the end of the month at about 60%. The economic data out of Sweden hasn't exactly been stellar, and that's likely to keep pressure on the Riksbank to maintain an accommodative stance.

Of course, any unexpected shift in global risk sentiment or a sudden hawkish surprise from the Riksbank could quickly reverse that, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be north.

Bit of a rollercoaster day for $SPCX, finishing up +2.56% at 116.41. Good to see some recovery, though that intraday range of 107.01-118.13 certainly kept things interesting. Meanwhile, $NZDCAD barely budged, up 0.05% at 0.81566, making me question if I should've just traded paint drying instead. All eyes now on Powell's upcoming remarks; feeling like we're all just waiting for the next tremor from the Fed before we can truly get a read on market direction. My watchlist is pretty much a holding pattern until we get some clarity there.