Yan Suzuki

Been looking at the $BRN Polymarket for a while now, specifically the 'BRN > 1.05 by October 31st' market. The recent moves have been interesting, with $BRN currently sitting around 1.01. We've seen a bit of a bounce, but nothing that screams sustained momentum just yet.

My take is that the probability of it hitting 1.05 by month-end is sitting around 35-40%. While the day's high of 1.02 shows it can touch that level, sustaining a further 3-4% rally without a significant catalyst in the next week feels like a stretch. The current price action seems more range-bound than genuinely directional for a break out that high. It's not impossible, but the odds aren't compelling enough to lean heavily into it.

That CPI print yesterday certainly threw a wrench in things, didn't it? I was really hoping to see a continued softening, but the sticky core components definitely give the Fed more room to maintain a hawkish stance. My initial thought was that this would put immediate pressure on the higher-multiple growth stocks, and we saw some of that yesterday. $PLTR, for instance, saw some red today, trading around 155.92, though it's staying within its daily range of 152.7-158. Not a massive sell-off, but enough to pause for thought.

I'm watching the bond market closely now. If yields continue to creep up, it's going to make that future earnings discount less appealing for these sorts of names. My watchlist for the next few weeks is going to be heavily focused on identifying companies that can truly demonstrate robust revenue growth, even in a higher-rate environment, rather than just those with promising narratives. It's time to be even more selective, in my opinion. What's everyone else thinking?

The Riksbank's slightly less hawkish tone post-meeting has $USDSEK testing the upper end of its daily range at 9.52101. Watching if we consolidate above this level or if it's another rejection as we saw earlier this week.