r/compliance

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BTCUSD: BUY 78800, SL 76600, TP 95000.

Bitcoin attempted to recover its price, but the move was not very successful. The resulting movement was quickly liquidated.

However, the situation remains quite favorable for a general price increase. This is due to the possible completion of a correction in the form of a double zigzag. A rise is expected in this scenario as an upward impulse in the next phase of market development.

It is quite possible that we will see another attempt to start rising during today's session.

You can try cautiously buying on a breakout of yesterday's local extreme.

Investment idea: BUY 78800, SL 76600, TP 95000.

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BTCUSD: FLAT.

The Bitcoin situation continues to follow the previously analyzed wave scenario.

The price rose slightly, but sellers immediately reacted by actively pushing the price down, which caused the rate to return to its starting point for this rise.

However, it is unlikely that this marks the beginning of the final wave c of (y) of the assumed double zigzag. Most likely, we will see one more weak attempt to rise, after which the expected longer decline will occur.

Thus, there is no need to rush into opening short positions at this time. It is better to spend today's trading day observing price behavior.

Investment idea: FLAT.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4027.22-4077.82, TP1-3976.72, TP2-3825.72.

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Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4150.00–4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating strong selling pressure.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4160.00-4180.00 and 4120.00-4140.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below these ranges, indicating strong selling pressure.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 23.10.2026.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4: 4027.22.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2: 4077.82.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 23.10.2026 – 3976.72.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SWCZ – 3825.72.

Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4027.22-4077.82, Take Profit 1 – 3976.72, Take Profit 2 – 3825.72.

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USDJPY:

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Accelerating inflation in Japan strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The September core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year-on-year after 1.7% in August. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4% from 1.9%. This supports the yen through expectations of higher cost of money, although an immediate decision by the regulator is not predetermined.

At the same time, concerns over artificial intelligence spending have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Purchases of Treasury bonds lowered US yields, weakening one of the main arguments for the dollar against the yen. For USDJPY, the key combination is two factors: declining dollar investment yields and more compelling grounds for further Japanese policy tightening.

Against a decline in the pair are the persistent interest rate differential and the risk of renewed US yield growth due to expensive oil. At its next meeting, the Bank of Japan may take a pause, so the inflation report does not guarantee continued yen strengthening. With sustained demand for safe-haven assets, however, its fundamental advantages still allow for further USDJPY downside.

Trading idea: SELL 156.90, SL 157.25, TP 156.20

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XAUUSD: SELL 4129.72-4181.42, TP1-4078.12, TP2-3915.72.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4133.00–4183.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, indicating weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4155.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, indicating strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4129.72.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4181.42.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 14.10.2026–4078.12.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3915.72.

Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4129.72-4181.42, Take Profit 1–4078.12, Take Profit 2–3915.72.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4179.05-4178.00, TP1-4075.55, TP2-3912.55.

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4133.00–4183.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4155.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates seller strength.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4127.25.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4179.05.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.10.2026–4075.55.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3912.55.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4179.05-4178.00, Take Profit 1–4075.55, Take Profit 2–3912.55.

https://cutt.ly/JylfVpDm

EURUSD:

The euro is supported by declining US bond yields: dollar investments become less attractive. Amid concerns over artificial intelligence spending, investors are buying US debt, but the currency itself has not yet benefited from this. For EURUSD, this creates an opportunity to continue its recovery after the recent decline.

From the Eurozone side, today's final assessment of September inflation is important. Preliminary data showed price growth accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining grounds for further ECB rate hikes. Confirmation of these figures will support euro interest rate expectations, although expensive energy simultaneously worsens the outlook for the European economy.

The main risk to pair growth is a return to dollar demand with more hawkish Fed signals. Strong US inflation leaves such an opportunity, while France's debt problems limit the attractiveness of the euro. As long as US yields are falling and immediate tightening does not receive new confirmation, the base scenario for the current session allows for moderate EURUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1215, SL 1.1190, TP 1.1270

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XAUUSD: SELL 4124.69-4175.69, TP1-4073.59, TP2-3914.59.

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4410.00–4450.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4150.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4124.69.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4175.69.

Intraday targets: update minimums from 10/14/2026–4073.59.

Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of GWCZ-3914.59.

Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4124.69-4175.69, Take Profit 1–4073.59, Take Profit 2–3914.59.

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BTCUSD: BUY 82000, SL 81000, TP 84500.

Earlier there were concerns that the Bitcoin correction had ended. Although a good zigzag had formed at that time, it turned out to be disproportionate to the previous impulsive rise. It lacked a bit of scale.

And now we see that the price has sharply returned to the lows of that very zigzag, thereby confirming the assumption about the complication of the corrective structure.

At the moment, the formation of a double zigzag is assumed, in which wave (x) is currently forming.

If this is indeed the case, then in the near future we will see another attempt to rise, which will also fail, but on this move you can try to make money.

For this, you can cautiously buy at current levels with a target near the local maximum.

Investment idea: BUY 82000, SL 81000, TP 84500.

https://cutt.ly/aynbhZII

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

GBPUSD:

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The Bank of England remains focused on inflation: yesterday, Chief Economist Hugh Pill emphasized the need to curb price growth. At the September meeting, he and two other participants advocated for a rate hike. For the pound, this supports expectations of policy tightening, although the majority's decision to hold rates shows that the next step is not yet predetermined.

UK budgetary risks limit the strength of this argument. Andrew Bailey highlighted the importance of credible fiscal policy amid stress in debt markets. Rising bond yields may reflect an increased risk premium rather than improved prospects for the pound. Therefore, confidence in funding government spending is crucial for sustained currency growth.

In the current session, the pound is aided by a slowdown in dollar strengthening as US yields decline. The University of Michigan report could amplify this effect if it confirms deteriorating consumer sentiment. Conversely, a strong result alongside rising inflation expectations would support the dollar. With the US interest rate momentum weakening, BoE expectations provide grounds for moderate GBPUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3240, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3315

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Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

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Inflation in Tokyo gave the yen fresh support: the core measure excluding fresh food accelerated in September to 2.7% from 1.8%, exceeding expectations of 2.4%. Core inflation excluding fresh food and fuel reached 3%, and services inflation also strengthened. This expands the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, although part of the acceleration is linked to the end of subsidies.

High US bond yields continue to support the dollar, but their rise cannot be fully explained by expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. Softer US inflation and cautious signals from the regulator have reduced the likelihood of an immediate move. Amid European budget risks, safe-haven demand could support both the dollar and the yen, so their ratio requires separate assessment.

For USD/JPY, the new Japanese inflation signal now creates grounds for a decline despite the persistent interest rate differential. The US employment report could cancel this scenario if strong wage growth again fuels expectations of Fed tightening. Prior to the release, the base idea is to sell the pair: yen support relies on new data, not just the risk of currency intervention.

Trading idea: SELL 157.95, SL 158.30, TP 157.15

BTCUSD: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

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Bitcoin continues its desperate resistance. This has once again delayed the emergence of another downward wave of the anticipated correction.

It is likely that a downward movement will occur today after all. It may turn out that the formed downward wave will become a full-fledged final one for the zigzag correction. After this, price growth will resume.

However, it is necessary to monitor how events develop subsequently. For now, it is recommended to consider opening a sell trade at current market prices.

Investment idea: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP volume quarter-on-quarter

GBPUSD:

The pound is approaching the European session near three-month lows, although the domestic backdrop in the UK does not appear unequivocally weak. The market anticipates a more hawkish trajectory from the Bank of England due to inflationary pressures, and statements on fiscal discipline have partially supported British assets. These factors limit the pace of GBP/USD decline but have not yet formed a sustained bullish momentum for the pound.

The key external factor remains the divergence between high yields in the US and the more vulnerable valuation of British assets. The dollar is supported by strong US economic data and expectations of another Fed rate hike this year. John Williams' statement reduced the likelihood of immediate tightening in October, but the market still awaits confirmation from inflation and employment data.

For GBP/USD, the picture looks more balanced than for the euro: the Bank of England can contain pressure on the pound, but the overall dollar momentum remains stronger. Given the already realized decline, selling potential is limited, so the base scenario assumes moderate continuation of the move, unless US statistics provide grounds for a significant revision of Fed expectations.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3240, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3180

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BTCUSD: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

The continuation of the upward movement in the considered trading asset seems to be postponed indefinitely. This is due to the beginning of a corrective decline, which Bitcoin entered after several unsuccessful attempts to resume growth.

In this case, the impulse at this stage of development can be considered complete. It is now worth paying attention to short trades. The target of the movement within this correction could be the minimum of wave (iv), which will be slightly updated, and the price will immediately start moving back up.

Thus, there is a potentially interesting short trade.

Investment idea: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

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BTCUSD: FLAT.

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We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.

At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.

It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.

In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.

Investment idea: FLAT.

XAUUSD: BUY 4293.47-4347.77, TP1-4402.07, TP2-4561.37.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4390.00–4425.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4366.00-4375.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

The area of favorable buy prices from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 09/18/2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/4–4347.77.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/2–4293.47.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 09/18/2026–4402.07.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4561.37.

Trading recommendations: buys from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4293.47–4347.77, Take Profit 1–4402.07, Take Profit 2–4561.37.

Event to watch today:

09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan raised its rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, reaching the highest level in 31 years. The decision was made by a majority of seven to two and aimed at limiting the risk of exceeding the inflation target. However, the hike was already expected by the market, so the fact of tightening did not provide the yen with sustained strengthening, and USD/JPY remained above 156.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan has narrowed but remains significant. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% and sent a stronger signal regarding future actions. Against this backdrop, carry trades continue to support the dollar, especially if Bank of Japan comments do not convince the market of readiness to accelerate subsequent hikes.

Upside potential for USD/JPY is limited by further normalization of Bank of Japan policy and authorities' sensitivity to yen weakness. Nevertheless, the initial reaction shows that the anticipated rate hike was largely already priced in. As long as the US regulator maintains a higher rate and allows for further tightening, the basic fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pair growth.

Trade idea: BUY 156.20, SL 155.80, TP 157.20

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BTCUSD: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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Bitcoin continues to remain under pressure from which it is trying to break out. This attempt is obviously the reason for the observed weak growth of the asset, and therefore, with a high degree of probability, it has a corrective nature.

In this case, further on, this growth will quickly be replaced by another sharp downward price movement, which will lead to the completion of the development of the assumed corrective wave (iv).

There is no need to rush to make any trading decisions in this situation. However, since the downside potential within the forming correction remains insignificant, it is recommended to start looking for possible entry points for buying.

At the moment, the most safe level for this decision is 79500.

Investment idea: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

It took just one trading session for the semiconductor sector to lose nearly 6% of its value. On September 14, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9%, while #NVIDIA shares dropped around 3.4% and #Micron fell more than 5%. The pressure spread across the broader technology market as well, with the Nasdaq ending the day lower.

The main trigger came from warnings issued by AI company executives. Following concerns about the risks of technology developing too quickly, investors seriously began asking for the first time in a while: what will happen to chipmakers if massive spending on artificial intelligence starts to slow down?

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What spooked investors:

1. The market has started reassessing future demand. #NVIDIA and #Micron have been among the biggest beneficiaries of data center construction and growing demand for computing power. Even a hint of a potential slowdown in AI investment is prompting investors to take a more cautious view of future processor and memory sales.
2. High interest rates are adding pressure. The yield on 10-year US government bonds briefly exceeded 5%, while expectations of another Fed rate hike remain elevated. The more expensive money becomes, the harder it is for technology stocks to justify high valuations.
3. Investors are taking profits after a strong rally. The semiconductor sector remains one of the year's top performers and, even after the sell-off, is still up around 57% since January. Against this backdrop, the emergence of a new risk provided a convenient reason to close some profitable positions.

The problem for the market is that current high valuations of technology companies already largely assume that AI investment will continue growing rapidly. As companies consistently increased spending on equipment and data centers, this scenario worked in favor of chipmakers. Now, the market has to consider the opposite possibility as well.

At the same time, it is still too early to talk about the end of the AI boom. Demand for computing power remains high, and a single day of selling does not change the long-term trend. However, the nearly 6% decline showed just how sensitive the sector has become to any doubts about the future pace of artificial intelligence spending.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as pressure on chipmakers persists, it will be harder for #NQ100 to reach new highs. If US Treasury yields remain around 5% and concerns about a slowdown in AI investment intensify, pressure on the technology index could continue.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4306.11-4360.01, TP1-4252.21, TP2-4086.71.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 – 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 – 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 4086.71.

Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 – 4252.21, Take Profit 2 – 4086.71.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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Copper is once again at the center of attention in the commodities market. On Tuesday, CUCUSD rose to around 6.80, almost returning to the highs seen at the beginning of August. Sellers failed to trigger any significant correction afterward: during the current session, prices are holding around 6.79, remaining very close to the levels reached.

At the same time, the global benchmark confirmed the strength of the move. On September 8, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,700 per tonne, setting a new all-time high. This shows that the rally in CUCUSD is part of a broader global copper market move.

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What is supporting copper prices:

1. Metal supply remains limited. The market is increasingly concerned that mining companies will not be able to increase production quickly enough.
2. The US is actively increasing imports. In July, copper shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the US reached a record 53,290 tonnes, while total US imports exceeded 220,000 tonnes in a single month for the first time. Traders are trying to redirect more metal to the US in advance amid the risk of new import tariffs.
3. Power grids and new technologies require more and more metal. Copper remains one of the key materials for electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centers. Rising infrastructure investment is supporting long-term demand.
4. Chinese industry continues to see strong external demand. In August, China’s exports increased by 25% year-on-year, while high-tech exports rose by 42.9% during the first eight months of the year. Growing shipments of electronics, electric vehicles and other technology products are supporting demand for industrial commodities, including copper.

What makes the current situation particularly notable is that the market is receiving support from two directions at once. On one side is long-term demand from the energy and technology sectors. On the other is the redistribution of physical supplies toward the US, which reduces the amount of freely available metal in other regions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the 6.60–6.80 range is becoming key for CUCUSD. Copper was trading around 6.65 just yesterday, and today it has once again approached the upper end of the range, showing that buyers remain interested. If the price holds above 6.60 over the coming days and does not return to a deeper decline by the beginning of next week, the current consolidation could be viewed as preparation for another upward wave. In this case, a breakout and sustained move above 6.80 could open the way to new local highs, and by the end of September, CUCUSD could well attempt to reach the 7.00 area.

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Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support from fresh data on Japan. Wholesale inflation in August rose by 7.6% year-on-year and exceeded market expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next week. The limit on USDJPY growth remains authorities' attention to the currency market and their willingness to support its orderly functioning.

However, in the current session, the American side of the pair remains the stronger factor. Yields on US ten-year bonds have approached 5%, and the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at approximately 70%. At the same time, demand for the dollar is supported by deteriorating risk sentiment against the backdrop of expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East.

The yen rally in early September has already significantly narrowed the gap in policy assessments between the two central banks, while the last few hours have seen a recovery in the dollar. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities' actions limit the potential of USDJPY, so the scenario requires caution. However, ahead of the release of US inflation data, the combination of high US yields and current dollar demand maintains the advantage for moderate pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 154.60, SL 154.10, TP 155.65

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XAUUSD: SELL 4392.60-4447.80, TP1-4337.40, TP2-4183.70.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: flat. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4380.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4395.00-4413.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 08.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4392.60.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4447.80.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 08.09.2026–4337.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-4183.70.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4392.60-4447.80, Take Profit 1–4337.40, Take Profit 2–4183.70.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

BTCUSD: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

A month without swaps on majors!

Bitcoin has so far failed to continue its strengthening. The start of the trading week turned out to be difficult for it; there is pressure on the asset that it is not handling very well. As a result, we see the price dip slightly.

But this is not critical, the situation is within the bounds of a correction, so the previously considered scenario still remains relevant.

It is still assumed that the impulse, which is wave 5, will develop. For this, a decisive upward leap is necessary; it may happen in the near future, and at the update of the local maximum, one can enter buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

XAUUSD: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00​

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Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569​

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The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30​

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Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1615 as the market prepares for the ECB meeting. Expectations of an interest rate hike support the euro, as investors factor in the regulator's need to respond to rising inflation risks. The likelihood of stronger signals regarding future policy limits interest in selling the European currency.

US employment data strengthened expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, but the dollar failed to sustain a solid rally. Attention shifts to upcoming US inflation statistics, which are needed for the market to get final confirmation of the regulator's September decision. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from concerns about rising government debt and economic policy uncertainty.

As a result, short-term advantage remains with the euro. Expected ECB policy tightening forms its own supporting factor, while heightened Fed expectations have already been partially priced in and do not yet provide the dollar with a clear momentum. If demand for the US currency remains restrained, EUR/USD may continue to recover.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1615, SL 1.1585, TP 1.1690

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a representative of the US regulator, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand back for the dollar, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

XAUUSD: SELL 4341.46-4399.06, TP1-4283.86, TP2-4133.66.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4400.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges of quotes 4590.00-4610.00 and 4320.00-4340.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 02.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4341.46.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4399.06.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 02.09.2026–4283.86.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4133.66.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4341.46-4399.06, Take Profit 1–4283.86, Take Profit 2–4133.66.

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USDJPY remains above the 160 mark as rising US Treasury yields and stronger expectations of an Fed rate hike support the dollar. The significant interest rate differential between the two countries maintains the attractiveness of carry trades, while higher oil prices further worsen conditions for Japan's import-dependent economy.

Support for the yen comes from statements by Bank of Japan representative Hajime Takata regarding the need to flexibly raise rates to curb inflationary pressure. The market also expects tighter policy from the regulator in September. However, these expectations have not yet provided sustained strengthening of the Japanese currency, as US yields rise alongside Japanese bond yields.

The main risk to pair growth remains the possibility of new actions by Japanese authorities following recent joint intervention by Japan and the US. Official concern about yen weakness could limit upside potential and trigger a sharp correction. Nevertheless, until confirmed measures appear, the combination of strong dollar momentum, elevated oil prices, and wide rate differentials continues to favor the USDJPY bullish scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 160.27, SL 159.87, TP 161.27