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Preheader: U.S. yields surge as the advantage shifts back to the U.S. currency

The U.S. dollar is ending the week significantly stronger, but this move is particularly evident across the major currency pairs. On September 25, EURUSD is trading around 1.1370 — its lowest level in two months, while GBPUSD is holding near 1.3220 — close to a three-month low. For the euro, this is already the third consecutive week of declines, while the British pound is having its worst week in roughly four months.

The main momentum is coming from the United States. Following the Fed’s September rate hike, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of further monetary tightening, while a sell-off in U.S. government bonds has pushed long-term yields to their highest levels in more than 20 years. Against this backdrop, the Dollar Index has gained more than 1% this week, but for traders, the more important question is how this move is affecting EURUSD and GBPUSD.

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Why EURUSD continues to decline:

1. U.S. interest rates are becoming more attractive again. The Fed has already raised its rate to 3.75–4.00% and continues to signal the possibility of further tightening. The higher the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the harder it becomes for EURUSD to recover.
2. The ECB is taking a more cautious approach. The European regulator has also raised its rate to 2.50%, but its officials are trying to contain expectations of rapid further hikes. Christine Lagarde has emphasized that rising energy prices alone are not enough to automatically justify tighter monetary policy.
3. Even strong European data are not helping the euro for now. Eurozone business activity in September came in above expectations, yet EURUSD continued to decline. This shows that the divergence in interest-rate expectations and rising U.S. yields are currently more important to the market than individual positive European indicators.

As a result, EURUSD has moved closer to 1.1370. If selling pressure persists, market attention could shift toward the 1.1300 area, while a return above 1.1450 would be the first sign that the current downward move is losing momentum.

Why GBPUSD is falling even faster:

1. The pound’s interest-rate advantage has narrowed. The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, while the Fed raised the upper bound of its target range to 4.00%. The yield differential is therefore providing less support for the British currency.
2. The U.K. economy remains weak. Business activity slowed in September, while demand for workers remains under pressure. This limits the Bank of England’s ability to raise rates too quickly.
3. High energy prices create a double challenge. They add to inflationary pressure while simultaneously reducing household real incomes and potentially slowing economic growth further.
4. The market is already pricing in further tightening. Several future Bank of England rate hikes are partly reflected in current prices, meaning the pound needs new positive catalysts to sustain a recovery.

As a result, GBPUSD has fallen to around 1.3220 and is down approximately 1.25% since the beginning of the week. A move below 1.3200 could increase pressure on the pair, while a return above 1.3300–1.3350 would be the first sign of a potential recovery.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as U.S. yields remain near multi-year highs, the advantage remains with the dollar, and pressure on EURUSD and GBPUSD may continue.

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The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.

This makes Bitcoin’s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.

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Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?

1. The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
2. Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
3. Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
4. Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.

At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000–93,000 area.

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BTCUSD: FLAT.

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We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.

At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.

It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.

In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.

Investment idea: FLAT.

XAUUSD: BUY 4293.47-4347.77, TP1-4402.07, TP2-4561.37.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4390.00–4425.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4366.00-4375.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

The area of favorable buy prices from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 09/18/2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/4–4347.77.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/2–4293.47.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 09/18/2026–4402.07.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4561.37.

Trading recommendations: buys from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4293.47–4347.77, Take Profit 1–4402.07, Take Profit 2–4561.37.

XAUUSD: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

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The main factor for gold this week remains the Fed's tightening policy. After raising the rate to 3.75–4.00%, the market anticipates further regulatory steps, and the yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds remains around 5%. High yields on interest-rate instruments limit the attractiveness of gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and can restrain XAUUSD from falling. However, as long as inflation risks support expectations of further rate hikes, the monetary-fiscal factor remains more significant. Against this backdrop, the baseline weekly scenario suggests downward pressure on gold.

Trading idea: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

#SP500: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

The US stock market begins the week between the resilience of the technology sector and rising borrowing costs. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are assessing the probability of further policy tightening, while Treasury bond yields remain high. This creates pressure on company valuations and limits the potential of the broad market.

Demand for tech stocks and expectations of stable corporate earnings are currently mitigating this effect. Negotiations between the US and China could also support sentiment. Nevertheless, with yields remaining at elevated levels, the market's sensitivity to capital costs stays high, so the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

#BRENT: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

Brent starts the week lower amid signs of recovering supplies from Saudi Arabia and hopes for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Saudi export flows increased in September, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain steady. This reduces the immediate risk premium for supply disruptions.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty: new attacks could quickly revive concerns about supply, and the IEA points to ongoing tension in the oil balance. Yet, given the current recovery of flows and sustained diplomatic expectations, the baseline weekly scenario allows for further declines in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

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EURUSD:

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The euro begins the session without clear support after the ECB previously raised rates by 25 basis points. The decision itself has already been largely priced in, and the regulator's recent comments indicate caution regarding further tightening, primarily due to high energy costs. For EUR/USD, this reduces the strength of the local factor in favor of the single currency.

The dollar retains stronger short-term momentum. On September 16, the Fed raised its rate range to 3.75?4.00%, and most officials expect at least one more hike by year-end. Additional support for the US currency comes from fresh statements indicating that inflation remains too high, so the market continues to price in the possibility of further policy tightening.

The interest rate differential still favors the US, while for the eurozone, expensive energy simultaneously poses inflationary and economic risks. Despite the previous sessions' decline in EUR/USD, the dollar factor does not appear fully exhausted. With current expectations maintained, the priority remains a moderate continuation of the pair's decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1485, SL 1.1515, TP 1.1410

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Event to watch today:

09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan raised its rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, reaching the highest level in 31 years. The decision was made by a majority of seven to two and aimed at limiting the risk of exceeding the inflation target. However, the hike was already expected by the market, so the fact of tightening did not provide the yen with sustained strengthening, and USD/JPY remained above 156.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan has narrowed but remains significant. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% and sent a stronger signal regarding future actions. Against this backdrop, carry trades continue to support the dollar, especially if Bank of Japan comments do not convince the market of readiness to accelerate subsequent hikes.

Upside potential for USD/JPY is limited by further normalization of Bank of Japan policy and authorities' sensitivity to yen weakness. Nevertheless, the initial reaction shows that the anticipated rate hike was largely already priced in. As long as the US regulator maintains a higher rate and allows for further tightening, the basic fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pair growth.

Trade idea: BUY 156.20, SL 155.80, TP 157.20

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The gold market has once again surprised investors. After the Fed raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, gold did not continue falling. Instead, it reversed higher. On September 17, XAUUSD gained around 1.6% and rose toward $4,330 per ounce, even though prices had fallen to approximately six-week lows just the day before.

At first glance, this reaction may seem illogical: higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. But this time, the market reacted differently — and that is the key to understanding the current move.

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Why Is Gold Rising Despite Higher Rates?

1. The rate hike had already been priced in. The Fed’s decision itself did not come as a surprise to the market. Therefore, after the announcement, some market participants began closing their previous short positions in gold.
2. Investors are focused not on the hike itself, but on what comes next. The Fed has indeed maintained a hawkish tone and left the door open to another rate hike before the end of the year. However, the market has already started assessing how far the regulator can actually go if the economy begins to slow down.
3. The oil rally has paused. Reduced pressure from oil prices has somewhat eased concerns about another wave of inflation. This is important for gold because it lowers the risk of even more aggressive Fed tightening.
4. Demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. Despite the rate hike, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and overall nervousness in global markets have not disappeared. This continues to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

For the market, it is now important not only to consider the current interest-rate level, but also how quickly the Fed can continue tightening without causing serious damage to the economy and stock market. This is why gold has an opportunity to recover: investors have seen that a hawkish Fed decision does not necessarily mean an automatic continuation of the XAUUSD sell-off.

According to FreshForex analysts, the current gold recovery shows that the market is still willing to buy XAUUSD dips when signs of stabilization emerge. If prices hold above the $4,300 area, buyers may attempt to extend the move toward $4,400–4,500.

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BTCUSD: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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Bitcoin continues to remain under pressure from which it is trying to break out. This attempt is obviously the reason for the observed weak growth of the asset, and therefore, with a high degree of probability, it has a corrective nature.

In this case, further on, this growth will quickly be replaced by another sharp downward price movement, which will lead to the completion of the development of the assumed corrective wave (iv).

There is no need to rush to make any trading decisions in this situation. However, since the downside potential within the forming correction remains insignificant, it is recommended to start looking for possible entry points for buying.

At the moment, the most safe level for this decision is 79500.

Investment idea: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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It took just one trading session for the semiconductor sector to lose nearly 6% of its value. On September 14, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9%, while #NVIDIA shares dropped around 3.4% and #Micron fell more than 5%. The pressure spread across the broader technology market as well, with the Nasdaq ending the day lower.

The main trigger came from warnings issued by AI company executives. Following concerns about the risks of technology developing too quickly, investors seriously began asking for the first time in a while: what will happen to chipmakers if massive spending on artificial intelligence starts to slow down?

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What spooked investors:

1. The market has started reassessing future demand. #NVIDIA and #Micron have been among the biggest beneficiaries of data center construction and growing demand for computing power. Even a hint of a potential slowdown in AI investment is prompting investors to take a more cautious view of future processor and memory sales.
2. High interest rates are adding pressure. The yield on 10-year US government bonds briefly exceeded 5%, while expectations of another Fed rate hike remain elevated. The more expensive money becomes, the harder it is for technology stocks to justify high valuations.
3. Investors are taking profits after a strong rally. The semiconductor sector remains one of the year's top performers and, even after the sell-off, is still up around 57% since January. Against this backdrop, the emergence of a new risk provided a convenient reason to close some profitable positions.

The problem for the market is that current high valuations of technology companies already largely assume that AI investment will continue growing rapidly. As companies consistently increased spending on equipment and data centers, this scenario worked in favor of chipmakers. Now, the market has to consider the opposite possibility as well.

At the same time, it is still too early to talk about the end of the AI boom. Demand for computing power remains high, and a single day of selling does not change the long-term trend. However, the nearly 6% decline showed just how sensitive the sector has become to any doubts about the future pace of artificial intelligence spending.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as pressure on chipmakers persists, it will be harder for #NQ100 to reach new highs. If US Treasury yields remain around 5% and concerns about a slowdown in AI investment intensify, pressure on the technology index could continue.

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Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Retail Sales

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

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The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.

Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.

On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400

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XAUUSD: SELL 4306.11-4360.01, TP1-4252.21, TP2-4086.71.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 – 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 – 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 4086.71.

Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 – 4252.21, Take Profit 2 – 4086.71.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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EURUSD:

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The euro begins the week after the ECB raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The regulator raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and indicated that inflation will remain above target longer than expected. This supports the euro, but the effect of the decision is already partially priced in by the market, while rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for the eurozone economy.

The American side of the pair received a fresher impulse following August's inflation data. Rising consumer prices strengthened expectations of an FOMC rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs. This gives the dollar an advantage ahead of the regulator's decision, especially given investors' cautious risk appetite.

As a result, support from the ECB for the euro currently does not outweigh the reassessment of the Fed's trajectory. Expensive energy further complicates growth prospects for the eurozone, while the expectation of a US rate hike remains a relevant driver for the current session. Against this backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1515

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Copper is once again at the center of attention in the commodities market. On Tuesday, CUCUSD rose to around 6.80, almost returning to the highs seen at the beginning of August. Sellers failed to trigger any significant correction afterward: during the current session, prices are holding around 6.79, remaining very close to the levels reached.

At the same time, the global benchmark confirmed the strength of the move. On September 8, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,700 per tonne, setting a new all-time high. This shows that the rally in CUCUSD is part of a broader global copper market move.

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What is supporting copper prices:

1. Metal supply remains limited. The market is increasingly concerned that mining companies will not be able to increase production quickly enough.
2. The US is actively increasing imports. In July, copper shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the US reached a record 53,290 tonnes, while total US imports exceeded 220,000 tonnes in a single month for the first time. Traders are trying to redirect more metal to the US in advance amid the risk of new import tariffs.
3. Power grids and new technologies require more and more metal. Copper remains one of the key materials for electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centers. Rising infrastructure investment is supporting long-term demand.
4. Chinese industry continues to see strong external demand. In August, China’s exports increased by 25% year-on-year, while high-tech exports rose by 42.9% during the first eight months of the year. Growing shipments of electronics, electric vehicles and other technology products are supporting demand for industrial commodities, including copper.

What makes the current situation particularly notable is that the market is receiving support from two directions at once. On one side is long-term demand from the energy and technology sectors. On the other is the redistribution of physical supplies toward the US, which reduces the amount of freely available metal in other regions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the 6.60–6.80 range is becoming key for CUCUSD. Copper was trading around 6.65 just yesterday, and today it has once again approached the upper end of the range, showing that buyers remain interested. If the price holds above 6.60 over the coming days and does not return to a deeper decline by the beginning of next week, the current consolidation could be viewed as preparation for another upward wave. In this case, a breakout and sustained move above 6.80 could open the way to new local highs, and by the end of September, CUCUSD could well attempt to reach the 7.00 area.

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Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support from fresh data on Japan. Wholesale inflation in August rose by 7.6% year-on-year and exceeded market expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next week. The limit on USDJPY growth remains authorities' attention to the currency market and their willingness to support its orderly functioning.

However, in the current session, the American side of the pair remains the stronger factor. Yields on US ten-year bonds have approached 5%, and the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at approximately 70%. At the same time, demand for the dollar is supported by deteriorating risk sentiment against the backdrop of expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East.

The yen rally in early September has already significantly narrowed the gap in policy assessments between the two central banks, while the last few hours have seen a recovery in the dollar. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities' actions limit the potential of USDJPY, so the scenario requires caution. However, ahead of the release of US inflation data, the combination of high US yields and current dollar demand maintains the advantage for moderate pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 154.60, SL 154.10, TP 155.65

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XAUUSD: SELL 4392.60-4447.80, TP1-4337.40, TP2-4183.70.

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Long-term trend: flat. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4380.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4395.00-4413.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 08.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4392.60.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4447.80.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 08.09.2026–4337.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-4183.70.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4392.60-4447.80, Take Profit 1–4337.40, Take Profit 2–4183.70.

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The Japanese yen has unexpectedly transformed from one of the market’s weakest currencies into a growth leader. On September 8, USDJPY fell to 152.89 — its lowest level since February, while the pair had recently been trading around 160. Since the beginning of September, the yen has strengthened by approximately 4.5%, forcing traders to reassess the pair’s further trajectory.

This time, the yen’s rise is driven not only by the threat of currency intervention. The market is increasingly preparing for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting. A 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% is now almost fully priced in.

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What is supporting the yen:

1. The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates. Expectations of further monetary policy tightening are making the yen more attractive and narrowing the interest-rate differential between Japan and the US.
2. Real wages are rising. In July, they increased by 2.4% year-on-year — the highest level since 2021. For the Bank of Japan, this is an important signal: rising household incomes reduce the risk that higher rates will hurt consumption too severely.
3. Japan’s economy has proven more resilient than expected. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 1.4% annualized, giving the central bank more room to continue raising rates.
4. Investors are closing short-yen positions. For a long time, market participants borrowed the cheap Japanese currency and invested the funds in higher-yielding assets abroad. Now, as Japanese rates rise, such trades are becoming less profitable, forcing investors to buy back the yen.

The currency is receiving additional support from the authorities’ stance. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that Japan and the US continue to coordinate their actions to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Following the joint intervention in July, traders are already factoring in the risk that a rapid return of USDJPY to its highs could once again trigger a response from the authorities.

According to FreshForex analysts, the yen still has the upper hand, and pressure on USDJPY may continue. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, rising real wages, and the unwinding of speculative short-yen positions continue to support the Japanese currency. If the central bank confirms on September 17–18 that it is prepared to continue raising rates, USDJPY could once again test the 150–152 area.

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GBPUSD:

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The pound starts the session in a mixed internal context after statements from Bank of England representatives. Andrew Bailey emphasized that a new rate hike is not predetermined, while Dave Ramsden described internal inflationary pressures as relatively moderate. These signals are capping the pound, although expensive oil raises the risk of renewed inflation acceleration and limits room for policy easing.

Dollar weakness remains a more significant short-term factor. Its index fell to a nearly two-week low, and the market is awaiting Friday's US inflation data, which could alter the assessment of the Fed's September decision. With no clear bias toward a rate hike over a pause scenario, the dollar struggles to form a sustainable recovery against major currencies.

For GBPUSD, the local backdrop is less favorable than for the euro, making growth potential appear more limited. However, cautious signals from the Bank of England have not yet outweighed the broader dollar momentum, and rising energy prices reduce the likelihood of the British regulator quickly shifting to a more dovish policy. Under current conditions, moderate GBPUSD strengthening remains the priority.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3615

You can find more analytical information on our website.

BTCUSD: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

A month without swaps on majors!

Bitcoin has so far failed to continue its strengthening. The start of the trading week turned out to be difficult for it; there is pressure on the asset that it is not handling very well. As a result, we see the price dip slightly.

But this is not critical, the situation is within the bounds of a correction, so the previously considered scenario still remains relevant.

It is still assumed that the impulse, which is wave 5, will develop. For this, a decisive upward leap is necessary; it may happen in the near future, and at the update of the local maximum, one can enter buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

XAUUSD: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00​

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

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Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569​

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The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30​

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Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1615 as the market prepares for the ECB meeting. Expectations of an interest rate hike support the euro, as investors factor in the regulator's need to respond to rising inflation risks. The likelihood of stronger signals regarding future policy limits interest in selling the European currency.

US employment data strengthened expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, but the dollar failed to sustain a solid rally. Attention shifts to upcoming US inflation statistics, which are needed for the market to get final confirmation of the regulator's September decision. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from concerns about rising government debt and economic policy uncertainty.

As a result, short-term advantage remains with the euro. Expected ECB policy tightening forms its own supporting factor, while heightened Fed expectations have already been partially priced in and do not yet provide the dollar with a clear momentum. If demand for the US currency remains restrained, EUR/USD may continue to recover.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1615, SL 1.1585, TP 1.1690

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a representative of the US regulator, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand back for the dollar, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

XAUUSD: SELL 4341.46-4399.06, TP1-4283.86, TP2-4133.66.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4400.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges of quotes 4590.00-4610.00 and 4320.00-4340.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 02.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4341.46.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4399.06.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 02.09.2026–4283.86.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4133.66.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4341.46-4399.06, Take Profit 1–4283.86, Take Profit 2–4133.66.

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USDJPY remains above the 160 mark as rising US Treasury yields and stronger expectations of an Fed rate hike support the dollar. The significant interest rate differential between the two countries maintains the attractiveness of carry trades, while higher oil prices further worsen conditions for Japan's import-dependent economy.

Support for the yen comes from statements by Bank of Japan representative Hajime Takata regarding the need to flexibly raise rates to curb inflationary pressure. The market also expects tighter policy from the regulator in September. However, these expectations have not yet provided sustained strengthening of the Japanese currency, as US yields rise alongside Japanese bond yields.

The main risk to pair growth remains the possibility of new actions by Japanese authorities following recent joint intervention by Japan and the US. Official concern about yen weakness could limit upside potential and trigger a sharp correction. Nevertheless, until confirmed measures appear, the combination of strong dollar momentum, elevated oil prices, and wide rate differentials continues to favor the USDJPY bullish scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 160.27, SL 159.87, TP 161.27

XAUUSD: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

Gold begins the week after a sharp decline triggered by reassessment of Fed policy prospects. The probability of a September rate hike has increased, US bond yields have risen, and dollar strength reduces the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit the depth of the correction. However, a sustained recovery will require easing of Fed rate expectations or weaker US labor market data. Until this happens, monetary factors retain their advantage and support the scenario for further XAUUSD decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

#SP500: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547​

The US stock market enters the week under pressure from rising yields and increased probability of a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns, while higher borrowing costs may reduce the attractiveness of highly valued stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

Focus will be on employment data and new corporate earnings. A strong labor market can strengthen expectations of policy tightening, while weak figures would ease pressure on the index. Until confirmation of a shift in expectations is received, the combination of high rates and geopolitical uncertainty keeps the priority on a #SP500 decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

#BRENT: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60​

Brent receives support due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Military actions near this key route increase the risk of supply disruptions and bring geopolitical premiums back into quotes, despite dollar strength.

Increased production and partial restoration of sea shipments may limit price rises. The market will also continue to assess inventory levels and demand prospects against the backdrop of tight Fed policy. However, as long as negotiations to stabilize the situation yield no results, the risk of supply disruption remains the main factor and supports the buying scenario for #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

BTCUSD: BUY 79200, SL 77000, TP 85000.

A month without swaps on majors!

No significantly important changes occurred over the past day. The price traded at the same price levels throughout this time.

However, some interesting developments have emerged. The decline has been halted, and Bitcoin is attempting to start rising.

Most likely, buyer activity will increase in the near future, leading to another strong bullish wave. This is driven by the formation of wave 5 of (iii) extension within the third impulse wave.

Thus, entering long positions in this situation remains a quite promising trading decision.

Investment idea: BUY 79200, SL 77000, TP 85000.

GBPUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The pound maintains support from the UK's inflationary backdrop, but fails to regain ground against the strengthening US dollar. Rising inflation expectations among British consumers reduce the likelihood of imminent easing by the Bank of England, while simultaneously highlighting the risk that high prices will continue to weigh on domestic demand and economic activity.

Earlier expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England helped GBPUSD rise to multi-month highs, so a significant portion of this factor has already been priced in by the market. Attention has now shifted to the relative hawkishness of the two central banks. Following signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its readiness to continue fighting inflation, US bond yields have risen, and the probability of a September rate increase has noticeably increased.

Within the current session, the dollar's momentum appears stronger than local arguments supporting the pound. The British currency may receive support from persistent inflation, but renewed growth will require new data reinforcing expectations of Bank of England action. Until such confirmation appears, rate hikes in the US and cautious demand for safe-haven assets create conditions for further GBPUSD decline.

Trade idea: SELL 1.35420, SL 1.35870, TP 1.34340

U.S. inflation has once again forced investors to reassess their expectations for the Fed’s interest rate policy. The PCE price index — the central bank’s key inflation gauge — rose 3.7% year over year in July, while the core reading, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.3%. Both figures are still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

The market reaction has been cautious. The dollar is holding near an eight-day high, while the probability of a Fed rate hike as early as September is now estimated at around 40%. Investors are now turning their attention to Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak on August 28.

The Economy Is Giving the Fed No Easy Choice:

High inflation usually calls for tighter monetary policy, but the U.S. economy is simultaneously sending mixed signals.

In the second quarter, U.S. GDP grew by just 1.5% year over year. On the other hand, domestic demand proved more resilient than initially estimated, corporate profits increased, and business investment continues to receive support from massive spending on artificial intelligence.

As a result, the Fed has to choose between two risks: another rate hike could slow the economy even further, while a policy that is too accommodative could allow inflation to remain significantly above the target level.

Everything Now Depends on Jackson Hole:

The key event will be Kevin Warsh’s speech on August 28. Above all, the market will be looking for an answer to one question: how seriously is the Fed prepared to fight inflation if price growth remains around its current levels?

A more hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and push U.S. Treasury yields higher. For #SP500 and #NQ100, such a scenario would create additional pressure, as higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce the appeal of growth stocks.

If the Fed Chair instead signals that another rate hike can be avoided, the market reaction could be the opposite — the dollar could come under pressure, while stock indexes could receive support.

According to FreshForex analysts, the Fed is unlikely to give the market a reason to expect an imminent policy easing: inflation at 3.7% remains too high, making a signal of persistently high rates and a willingness to raise them again if inflation fails to slow the most likely scenario. For traders, this means a stronger dollar and increased downside risk for #SP500 and #NQ100, particularly the technology sector, which is the most sensitive to expensive financing.

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro begins the European session near weekly lows as the market approaches Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech with heightened attention to inflation risks in the US. Several Fed officials recently reiterated the need to maintain a firm stance against price pressures, and the probability of a rate hike by year-end has increased. This supports the dollar and limits EURUSD recovery.

The local backdrop for the euro appears mixed. Market participants are awaiting fresh data on inflation and economic activity in France, which could adjust expectations for the ECB. However, until their release, the European currency lacks a new confirmed driver capable of outweighing the dollar's strength. Current ECB policy expectations provide some support for the euro, but they do not yet alter the overall balance of the current session.

The key factor remains the market's reaction to signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole. If Warsh confirms the priority of fighting inflation and does not soften rate expectations, demand for the dollar is likely to persist. A softer rhetoric would pose a risk to this scenario, but until such a signal appears, the basic fundamental backdrop favors further decline in EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1650, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1575