XAUUSD: SELL 4392.60-4447.80, TP1-4337.40, TP2-4183.70.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: flat. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4380.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4395.00-4413.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 08.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4392.60.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4447.80.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 08.09.2026–4337.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-4183.70.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4392.60-4447.80, Take Profit 1–4337.40, Take Profit 2–4183.70.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

The Japanese yen has unexpectedly transformed from one of the market’s weakest currencies into a growth leader. On September 8, USDJPY fell to 152.89 — its lowest level since February, while the pair had recently been trading around 160. Since the beginning of September, the yen has strengthened by approximately 4.5%, forcing traders to reassess the pair’s further trajectory.

This time, the yen’s rise is driven not only by the threat of currency intervention. The market is increasingly preparing for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting. A 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% is now almost fully priced in.

Autumn 202% bonus on deposits from $202! Enter the promo code SEPT202 in your Personal Area and participate!

What is supporting the yen:

1. The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates. Expectations of further monetary policy tightening are making the yen more attractive and narrowing the interest-rate differential between Japan and the US.
2. Real wages are rising. In July, they increased by 2.4% year-on-year — the highest level since 2021. For the Bank of Japan, this is an important signal: rising household incomes reduce the risk that higher rates will hurt consumption too severely.
3. Japan’s economy has proven more resilient than expected. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 1.4% annualized, giving the central bank more room to continue raising rates.
4. Investors are closing short-yen positions. For a long time, market participants borrowed the cheap Japanese currency and invested the funds in higher-yielding assets abroad. Now, as Japanese rates rise, such trades are becoming less profitable, forcing investors to buy back the yen.

The currency is receiving additional support from the authorities’ stance. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that Japan and the US continue to coordinate their actions to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Following the joint intervention in July, traders are already factoring in the risk that a rapid return of USDJPY to its highs could once again trigger a response from the authorities.

According to FreshForex analysts, the yen still has the upper hand, and pressure on USDJPY may continue. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, rising real wages, and the unwinding of speculative short-yen positions continue to support the Japanese currency. If the central bank confirms on September 17–18 that it is prepared to continue raising rates, USDJPY could once again test the 150–152 area.

FreshForex offers more than 250 trading instruments, including major currency pairs with leverage of up to 1:2000. Take advantage of trading opportunities and earn!

GBPUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The pound starts the session in a mixed internal context after statements from Bank of England representatives. Andrew Bailey emphasized that a new rate hike is not predetermined, while Dave Ramsden described internal inflationary pressures as relatively moderate. These signals are capping the pound, although expensive oil raises the risk of renewed inflation acceleration and limits room for policy easing.

Dollar weakness remains a more significant short-term factor. Its index fell to a nearly two-week low, and the market is awaiting Friday's US inflation data, which could alter the assessment of the Fed's September decision. With no clear bias toward a rate hike over a pause scenario, the dollar struggles to form a sustainable recovery against major currencies.

For GBPUSD, the local backdrop is less favorable than for the euro, making growth potential appear more limited. However, cautious signals from the Bank of England have not yet outweighed the broader dollar momentum, and rising energy prices reduce the likelihood of the British regulator quickly shifting to a more dovish policy. Under current conditions, moderate GBPUSD strengthening remains the priority.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3615

You can find more analytical information on our website.

BTCUSD: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

A month without swaps on majors!

Bitcoin has so far failed to continue its strengthening. The start of the trading week turned out to be difficult for it; there is pressure on the asset that it is not handling very well. As a result, we see the price dip slightly.

But this is not critical, the situation is within the bounds of a correction, so the previously considered scenario still remains relevant.

It is still assumed that the impulse, which is wave 5, will develop. For this, a decisive upward leap is necessary; it may happen in the near future, and at the update of the local maximum, one can enter buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

XAUUSD: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00​

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

​https://ig8hbqhc4qkm4jmf.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/posts/415/68875aa3-7326-4bba-90cc-eab9301a437e.jpg

Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569​

https://ig8hbqhc4qkm4jmf.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/posts/415/a7848c8e-9b9a-492d-bfbd-d1130952a433.jpg

The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30​

https://ig8hbqhc4qkm4jmf.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/posts/415/2725f8d5-59d1-468b-8a64-3bd4ea75d0d3.jpg

Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1615 as the market prepares for the ECB meeting. Expectations of an interest rate hike support the euro, as investors factor in the regulator's need to respond to rising inflation risks. The likelihood of stronger signals regarding future policy limits interest in selling the European currency.

US employment data strengthened expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, but the dollar failed to sustain a solid rally. Attention shifts to upcoming US inflation statistics, which are needed for the market to get final confirmation of the regulator's September decision. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from concerns about rising government debt and economic policy uncertainty.

As a result, short-term advantage remains with the euro. Expected ECB policy tightening forms its own supporting factor, while heightened Fed expectations have already been partially priced in and do not yet provide the dollar with a clear momentum. If demand for the US currency remains restrained, EUR/USD may continue to recover.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1615, SL 1.1585, TP 1.1690

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a representative of the US regulator, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand back for the dollar, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

XAUUSD: SELL 4341.46-4399.06, TP1-4283.86, TP2-4133.66.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4400.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges of quotes 4590.00-4610.00 and 4320.00-4340.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 02.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4341.46.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4399.06.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 02.09.2026–4283.86.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4133.66.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4341.46-4399.06, Take Profit 1–4283.86, Take Profit 2–4133.66.

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

USDJPY remains above the 160 mark as rising US Treasury yields and stronger expectations of an Fed rate hike support the dollar. The significant interest rate differential between the two countries maintains the attractiveness of carry trades, while higher oil prices further worsen conditions for Japan's import-dependent economy.

Support for the yen comes from statements by Bank of Japan representative Hajime Takata regarding the need to flexibly raise rates to curb inflationary pressure. The market also expects tighter policy from the regulator in September. However, these expectations have not yet provided sustained strengthening of the Japanese currency, as US yields rise alongside Japanese bond yields.

The main risk to pair growth remains the possibility of new actions by Japanese authorities following recent joint intervention by Japan and the US. Official concern about yen weakness could limit upside potential and trigger a sharp correction. Nevertheless, until confirmed measures appear, the combination of strong dollar momentum, elevated oil prices, and wide rate differentials continues to favor the USDJPY bullish scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 160.27, SL 159.87, TP 161.27

XAUUSD: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

Gold begins the week after a sharp decline triggered by reassessment of Fed policy prospects. The probability of a September rate hike has increased, US bond yields have risen, and dollar strength reduces the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit the depth of the correction. However, a sustained recovery will require easing of Fed rate expectations or weaker US labor market data. Until this happens, monetary factors retain their advantage and support the scenario for further XAUUSD decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

#SP500: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547​

The US stock market enters the week under pressure from rising yields and increased probability of a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns, while higher borrowing costs may reduce the attractiveness of highly valued stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

Focus will be on employment data and new corporate earnings. A strong labor market can strengthen expectations of policy tightening, while weak figures would ease pressure on the index. Until confirmation of a shift in expectations is received, the combination of high rates and geopolitical uncertainty keeps the priority on a #SP500 decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

#BRENT: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60​

Brent receives support due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Military actions near this key route increase the risk of supply disruptions and bring geopolitical premiums back into quotes, despite dollar strength.

Increased production and partial restoration of sea shipments may limit price rises. The market will also continue to assess inventory levels and demand prospects against the backdrop of tight Fed policy. However, as long as negotiations to stabilize the situation yield no results, the risk of supply disruption remains the main factor and supports the buying scenario for #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

BTCUSD: BUY 79200, SL 77000, TP 85000.

A month without swaps on majors!

No significantly important changes occurred over the past day. The price traded at the same price levels throughout this time.

However, some interesting developments have emerged. The decline has been halted, and Bitcoin is attempting to start rising.

Most likely, buyer activity will increase in the near future, leading to another strong bullish wave. This is driven by the formation of wave 5 of (iii) extension within the third impulse wave.

Thus, entering long positions in this situation remains a quite promising trading decision.

Investment idea: BUY 79200, SL 77000, TP 85000.