Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Retail Sales

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.

Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.

On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400

You can find more analytical information on our website.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4306.11-4360.01, TP1-4252.21, TP2-4086.71.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 – 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 – 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 4086.71.

Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 – 4252.21, Take Profit 2 – 4086.71.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro begins the week after the ECB raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The regulator raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and indicated that inflation will remain above target longer than expected. This supports the euro, but the effect of the decision is already partially priced in by the market, while rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for the eurozone economy.

The American side of the pair received a fresher impulse following August's inflation data. Rising consumer prices strengthened expectations of an FOMC rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs. This gives the dollar an advantage ahead of the regulator's decision, especially given investors' cautious risk appetite.

As a result, support from the ECB for the euro currently does not outweigh the reassessment of the Fed's trajectory. Expensive energy further complicates growth prospects for the eurozone, while the expectation of a US rate hike remains a relevant driver for the current session. Against this backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1515

You can find more analytical information on our website.

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Copper is once again at the center of attention in the commodities market. On Tuesday, CUCUSD rose to around 6.80, almost returning to the highs seen at the beginning of August. Sellers failed to trigger any significant correction afterward: during the current session, prices are holding around 6.79, remaining very close to the levels reached.

At the same time, the global benchmark confirmed the strength of the move. On September 8, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,700 per tonne, setting a new all-time high. This shows that the rally in CUCUSD is part of a broader global copper market move.

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What is supporting copper prices:

1. Metal supply remains limited. The market is increasingly concerned that mining companies will not be able to increase production quickly enough.
2. The US is actively increasing imports. In July, copper shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the US reached a record 53,290 tonnes, while total US imports exceeded 220,000 tonnes in a single month for the first time. Traders are trying to redirect more metal to the US in advance amid the risk of new import tariffs.
3. Power grids and new technologies require more and more metal. Copper remains one of the key materials for electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centers. Rising infrastructure investment is supporting long-term demand.
4. Chinese industry continues to see strong external demand. In August, China’s exports increased by 25% year-on-year, while high-tech exports rose by 42.9% during the first eight months of the year. Growing shipments of electronics, electric vehicles and other technology products are supporting demand for industrial commodities, including copper.

What makes the current situation particularly notable is that the market is receiving support from two directions at once. On one side is long-term demand from the energy and technology sectors. On the other is the redistribution of physical supplies toward the US, which reduces the amount of freely available metal in other regions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the 6.60–6.80 range is becoming key for CUCUSD. Copper was trading around 6.65 just yesterday, and today it has once again approached the upper end of the range, showing that buyers remain interested. If the price holds above 6.60 over the coming days and does not return to a deeper decline by the beginning of next week, the current consolidation could be viewed as preparation for another upward wave. In this case, a breakout and sustained move above 6.80 could open the way to new local highs, and by the end of September, CUCUSD could well attempt to reach the 7.00 area.

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Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

A month without swaps on majors!

The yen is receiving fundamental support from fresh data on Japan. Wholesale inflation in August rose by 7.6% year-on-year and exceeded market expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next week. The limit on USDJPY growth remains authorities' attention to the currency market and their willingness to support its orderly functioning.

However, in the current session, the American side of the pair remains the stronger factor. Yields on US ten-year bonds have approached 5%, and the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at approximately 70%. At the same time, demand for the dollar is supported by deteriorating risk sentiment against the backdrop of expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East.

The yen rally in early September has already significantly narrowed the gap in policy assessments between the two central banks, while the last few hours have seen a recovery in the dollar. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities' actions limit the potential of USDJPY, so the scenario requires caution. However, ahead of the release of US inflation data, the combination of high US yields and current dollar demand maintains the advantage for moderate pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 154.60, SL 154.10, TP 155.65

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XAUUSD: SELL 4392.60-4447.80, TP1-4337.40, TP2-4183.70.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: flat. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4380.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4395.00-4413.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 08.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4392.60.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4447.80.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 08.09.2026–4337.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-4183.70.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4392.60-4447.80, Take Profit 1–4337.40, Take Profit 2–4183.70.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

The Japanese yen has unexpectedly transformed from one of the market’s weakest currencies into a growth leader. On September 8, USDJPY fell to 152.89 — its lowest level since February, while the pair had recently been trading around 160. Since the beginning of September, the yen has strengthened by approximately 4.5%, forcing traders to reassess the pair’s further trajectory.

This time, the yen’s rise is driven not only by the threat of currency intervention. The market is increasingly preparing for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting. A 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% is now almost fully priced in.

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What is supporting the yen:

1. The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates. Expectations of further monetary policy tightening are making the yen more attractive and narrowing the interest-rate differential between Japan and the US.
2. Real wages are rising. In July, they increased by 2.4% year-on-year — the highest level since 2021. For the Bank of Japan, this is an important signal: rising household incomes reduce the risk that higher rates will hurt consumption too severely.
3. Japan’s economy has proven more resilient than expected. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 1.4% annualized, giving the central bank more room to continue raising rates.
4. Investors are closing short-yen positions. For a long time, market participants borrowed the cheap Japanese currency and invested the funds in higher-yielding assets abroad. Now, as Japanese rates rise, such trades are becoming less profitable, forcing investors to buy back the yen.

The currency is receiving additional support from the authorities’ stance. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that Japan and the US continue to coordinate their actions to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Following the joint intervention in July, traders are already factoring in the risk that a rapid return of USDJPY to its highs could once again trigger a response from the authorities.

According to FreshForex analysts, the yen still has the upper hand, and pressure on USDJPY may continue. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, rising real wages, and the unwinding of speculative short-yen positions continue to support the Japanese currency. If the central bank confirms on September 17–18 that it is prepared to continue raising rates, USDJPY could once again test the 150–152 area.

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GBPUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The pound starts the session in a mixed internal context after statements from Bank of England representatives. Andrew Bailey emphasized that a new rate hike is not predetermined, while Dave Ramsden described internal inflationary pressures as relatively moderate. These signals are capping the pound, although expensive oil raises the risk of renewed inflation acceleration and limits room for policy easing.

Dollar weakness remains a more significant short-term factor. Its index fell to a nearly two-week low, and the market is awaiting Friday's US inflation data, which could alter the assessment of the Fed's September decision. With no clear bias toward a rate hike over a pause scenario, the dollar struggles to form a sustainable recovery against major currencies.

For GBPUSD, the local backdrop is less favorable than for the euro, making growth potential appear more limited. However, cautious signals from the Bank of England have not yet outweighed the broader dollar momentum, and rising energy prices reduce the likelihood of the British regulator quickly shifting to a more dovish policy. Under current conditions, moderate GBPUSD strengthening remains the priority.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3615

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BTCUSD: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

A month without swaps on majors!

Bitcoin has so far failed to continue its strengthening. The start of the trading week turned out to be difficult for it; there is pressure on the asset that it is not handling very well. As a result, we see the price dip slightly.

But this is not critical, the situation is within the bounds of a correction, so the previously considered scenario still remains relevant.

It is still assumed that the impulse, which is wave 5, will develop. For this, a decisive upward leap is necessary; it may happen in the near future, and at the update of the local maximum, one can enter buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

You can find more analytical information on our website.

XAUUSD: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00​

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

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Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569​

https://ig8hbqhc4qkm4jmf.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/posts/415/a7848c8e-9b9a-492d-bfbd-d1130952a433.jpg

The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30​

https://ig8hbqhc4qkm4jmf.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/posts/415/2725f8d5-59d1-468b-8a64-3bd4ea75d0d3.jpg

Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1615 as the market prepares for the ECB meeting. Expectations of an interest rate hike support the euro, as investors factor in the regulator's need to respond to rising inflation risks. The likelihood of stronger signals regarding future policy limits interest in selling the European currency.

US employment data strengthened expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, but the dollar failed to sustain a solid rally. Attention shifts to upcoming US inflation statistics, which are needed for the market to get final confirmation of the regulator's September decision. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from concerns about rising government debt and economic policy uncertainty.

As a result, short-term advantage remains with the euro. Expected ECB policy tightening forms its own supporting factor, while heightened Fed expectations have already been partially priced in and do not yet provide the dollar with a clear momentum. If demand for the US currency remains restrained, EUR/USD may continue to recover.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1615, SL 1.1585, TP 1.1690

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a representative of the US regulator, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand back for the dollar, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

XAUUSD: SELL 4341.46-4399.06, TP1-4283.86, TP2-4133.66.

A month without swaps on majors!

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4400.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges of quotes 4590.00-4610.00 and 4320.00-4340.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 02.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4341.46.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4399.06.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 02.09.2026–4283.86.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4133.66.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4341.46-4399.06, Take Profit 1–4283.86, Take Profit 2–4133.66.

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?

Price has been coiling under the weekly resistance and I think a clean break of 1.0850 opens the door to 1.0920. Stop below the recent swing low, looking for a 2:1 on the swing. Anyone else watching this level on EURUSD?