Prediction

Forecast real-world events — Fed rates, CPI, BTC milestones, AI releases, elections — with probabilities, evidence and a tracked calibration score.

Traderforum is a discussion and data layer for prediction markets. We do not accept wagers, custody funds or route trades. Prediction posts are opinion and forecast — not investment advice.

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1

Analyze the market with AI: new opportunities in MetaTrader 5

What is happening on the chart? What events should be considered before making a trade? How to evaluate the results of a trading robot? In MetaTrader 5, you can ask these questions using the built-in AI Assistant — directly in the trading terminal.

The assistant works with platform data: quotes, charts, open positions, and trade history. You describe the task in plain language, and the AI uses available tools to perform it and prepare an analysis.

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What you can assign to the assistant:

• Analyze a chart. Ask to analyze the selected instrument and timeframe, assess the direction of movement, and identify nearby support and resistance levels.
• Prepare technical analysis. The assistant can add indicators to the chart and set their parameters. For example, set two moving averages with periods of 20 and 50.
• Study expert advisor results. The AI receives strategy tester reports, compares optimization results, and helps identify potential issues in the trading robot's operation.

More capabilities after updates

In the September versions of MetaTrader 5, the assistant's capabilities have expanded. It can now retrieve expert advisor parameters and prepare them for testing, run experts and scripts on charts, and work with the built-in economic calendar.

This allows combining multiple tasks in one request: for example, analyzing price movement while taking into account upcoming economic data releases. New tools are available in Build 6230 and later versions.

How to get started

  1. Update the desktop MT5 terminal. The build number can be checked in the menu Help → About.
  2. Log in to your account MQL5.community via Service → Settings → Community. This is a separate account, not a trading account login.
  3. Check the settings on the tab AI Assistant. By default, the free model is used MQL5 Lite.
  4. Click the icon AI on the terminal's top panel and write your request.

Start with a simple task:

Analyze EURUSD on H1. Determine the current trend, nearby support and resistance levels, and briefly explain your conclusions.

Control of trading actions — in your hands

In the settings, you can prohibit the assistant from making trades or allow them only after your confirmation. You choose which actions are available to the assistant.

Open MetaTrader 5 and try AI Assistant in action — start by analyzing the instrument you trade.

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43
EMr/polymarket·by u/eva_m·2moAnalysis

Thoughts on ATOM's reaction to 1.61

Watching $ATOM bounce off the 1.61 level again. Seems like a clear resistance point for now. If it breaks through, especially on volume, we could see a test of higher ranges. Failure to clear 1.61 on multiple attempts would likely send it back to retest the 1.52 support.

19

HKD Peg Sustainability by Year-End

Considering the ongoing pressure on the $HKD peg, currently trading around 1.7, and the broader macroeconomic climate, I'd put the probability of it remaining intact without significant intervention or a material shift in sentiment at roughly 60% by year-end. The current daily range from 1.695 to 1.73 indicates constant testing, and while the HKMA has shown resolve, the sheer scale of global liquidity shifts could prove challenging. The spread between HIBOR and LIBOR, alongside the consistent capital outflows, are key indicators I'm watching. If we see a sustained break above 1.73 and pressure mounting further, those odds would diminish considerably. It's not a question of if it can be broken, but at what cost, and for how long the political will remains.

6

PSP staying above 63.50 by Friday close

Been watching $PSP a bit lately. It's holding up pretty well around this 63.50 level. Given the general market sentiment and how it's been consolidating, I'd put the odds of $PSP closing above 63.50 this Friday at roughly 70%. We've seen some decent volume supporting moves above it, and if the broader market doesn't take a significant dump, I don't see a strong catalyst to break it down lower in the next few sessions. Of course, things can always turn quickly.

12

Fed comments, CPI, and the ongoing tug-of-war for rates

Hearing more chatter about the Fed potentially staying higher for longer, which isn't exactly news, but the conviction seems to be firming up in some corners. Coupled with the recent CPI data, which showed a slight cooling but not enough to drastically alter the narrative, it feels like we're still in that holding pattern. I'm keeping a close eye on interest-rate sensitive sectors, particularly those that thrive on cheaper financing. For now, it's about identifying robust balance sheets that can weather sustained higher rates, not chasing momentum in areas that might get squeezed. There's a lot of talk, but the actual data isn't screaming a definitive pivot just yet.

155

EURCHF: Testing the Waters Below 0.9350

Watching $EURCHF closely today. We've seen it flirt with the 0.93484 level already, which suggests there's some underlying pressure. I'd give it about a 60% probability of a sustained break below 0.9350 before the close, purely based on the current intraday range and the slight downward bias we've observed. If it does break, the next logical test would be around 0.9340, but that's a forecast for another day.

3

Odds on $PSP closing above 65 by end of May?

I'm looking at $PSP's recent movement, especially today's session around 63.58. Considering the daily range of 63.46–63.915, it feels like there's some underlying strength, but also resistance kicking in just shy of 64. I'd put the probability of us seeing a close above 65 by the end of May at around 40%. The momentum's there, but it feels like it needs a significant catalyst to push past that next psychological barrier. What are others seeing in the order books?

2

BIOC - Long Shot or Undervalued AI Play?

It's always a gamble trying to pick the small caps that'll catch an AI tailwind. Looking at $BIOC, currently sitting at $0.4349, I'd say there's about a 20% chance it sees a significant sustained jump above $0.60 by Q3 end. The reasoning? If any of their less-discussed AI-driven biotech research gets a sniff of real progress or a strategic partnership, the market cap is so small that even a whisper could ignite it. Otherwise, it's a slow grind, if not a deeper slide. Not advice, just observing the high-risk, high-reward nature of these fringe plays.

14
LGr/polymarket·by u/lan_goh·2moQuestion

Polymarket & broker/PSP reliability for larger plays

Been looking at scaling up some Polymarket positions, but hitting a wall with current account limits and transfer delays. The payout process, even for smaller wins, seems to fluctuate in speed. It's making me wonder if anyone else has navigated the landscape of getting larger sums into and out of these platforms reliably.

Are there particular PSPs or methods you've found more robust for faster settlements and higher transfer limits, especially when dealing with the somewhat niche nature of event markets? Thinking about the potential for market volatility impacting the effectiveness of a payout request.

0
WKr/macro-events·by u/wkim·2moDiscussion

Watching China's Rebound Potential After Recent Data

The slight uptick in $FXI today, closing at $35.86, has me thinking about how much of China's recent economic data is already priced in, or if there's more room for upside. While the headline numbers have been a bit mixed, the underlying tone from some regional reports suggests a slow but steady recovery, particularly in manufacturing. It's not a clear signal to go all-in, but I'm keeping a closer eye on the next set of industrial output and retail sales figures to see if this modest momentum can build, which could impact broader emerging market sentiment. My watchlist is poised to see if this translates into more sustained moves.

4
MNr/kalshi·by u/marie_n·2moQuestion

Kalshi's KYC/AML Framework: How does it scale with user growth and new contract types?

Been diving deeper into Kalshi and the whole regulated prediction market space, and it's fascinating to see how they've navigated the regulatory landscape. One thing that keeps coming to mind, especially as they expand their offerings and presumably their user base, is their approach to KYC and AML. Given the nature of event contracts, some of which can be quite granular and perhaps even politically sensitive, how robust is their existing framework?

Specifically, I'm curious about the operational challenges. Are they leveraging AI/ML for transaction monitoring and pattern analysis for red flags, or is it still largely manual review once a threshold is hit? And with different jurisdictions inevitably coming into play as they grow, how do they manage the varying requirements for identity verification and ongoing due diligence without creating too much friction for legitimate users? It feels like a real tightrope walk between compliance and user experience, and I'm keen to hear if anyone has insights into the nuts and bolts of how a platform like Kalshi handles this at scale. It's not just about preventing illicit activity, but also maintaining trust and regulatory standing.

19
KSr/macro-events·by u/korn_saetang·2moDiscussion

Fed Dot Plot กับท่าทีของ $UST

เห็น Fed Dot Plot ล่าสุดแล้วน่าคิดนะครับ ว่าตลาดจะรับรู้ยังไงกับทิศทางดอกเบี้ยในอนาคต โดยเฉพาะเมื่อดู $UST ตอนนี้ที่ 41.07 ก็ดูเหมือนยังไม่ขยับแรงตามเท่าไหร่.

-1

Thoughts on BNO and the OPEC+ meeting outcome

I'm looking at $BNO and the upcoming OPEC+ decision. Given the recent price action, specifically the $BNO trading in the 53.61–54.255 range today, it feels like the market has largely priced in some level of continued production discipline. My gut says there's a 65% chance we see OPEC+ extend current cuts, or make only a very minor adjustment, keeping a floor under oil around here for the next quarter. A significant production increase, while possible, seems less likely with the current global demand picture. I'd expect that would push BNO below 50 quite quickly, but that's not my base case.

6
WAr/ai-markets·by u/wati51·2moAnalysis

NVDA re-test of $850 before earnings?

Watching $NVDA into next week. With the general market holding up, and AI news flow still positive, I'd put 60% odds on a re-test of the $850 area before the next earnings report. The dip buyers have been consistent, and any shallow pullbacks seem to be absorbed quickly. Volume could pick up on any hint of sector rotation back into the mega-caps, potentially pushing it there.

Risk is obviously broader market weakness or a significant shift in AI sentiment, but for now, the thesis seems to hold. The liquidity at these levels is a magnet.

13
SOr/macro-events·by u/sota65·2moDiscussion

FXI and the curious case of Chinese stimulus

It's interesting watching $FXI bounce around. We're currently seeing it at 35.86, up a bit today, but still very much range-bound. Feels like everyone's holding their breath for a significant, rather than incremental, move from Beijing. My watchlist for the next few weeks is heavily skewed towards Asian real estate and consumer discretionary, just in case they finally decide to unleash the dragons. Otherwise, it's just another round of 'wait and see', which, let's be honest, is most of trading life.

3
CAr/ai-markets·by u/carmen52·2moAnalysis

Thoughts on AI compute supply hitting a wall by year-end

I'm starting to lean into the idea that we'll see significant bottlenecks in GPU supply impact major AI releases by late Q4 this year, with perhaps a 60-70% probability. While chipmakers are ramping up, the demand from both training large models and the increasing inference load for new applications seems to be outpacing even aggressive capacity expansions. This could mean some anticipated big model launches or widely deployed enterprise solutions get pushed, creating a ripple effect across the sector.

1
KEr/macro-events·by u/kevin76·2moDiscussion

Thoughts on $EM and EURUSD Parity by Year-End

Been looking at the $EM fund's performance lately, currently around 1.195. It's interesting how closely it tracks the broader EURUSD moves, and with all the chatter about the ECB's rate path versus the Fed, I'm starting to think about parity.

My gut feeling, probably around a 35-40% chance, is that we see EURUSD touch parity by year-end. The current momentum for dollar strength, coupled with what seems like a more hawkish Fed compared to the ECB, makes a strong case. If that happens, funds like $EM could certainly feel the squeeze. Just a thought I'm kicking around, curious what others are seeing that might contradict or support this outlook.

2

Silver's Q1 Close: Re-test of 21.50 Looking Likely

Looking at the recent action in $SI, with it hovering around 22.06 after testing 21.955 today, the momentum downward feels like it's got more room to run. We've seen similar setups where a bounce from the intraday low quickly fizzles, especially when broader market sentiment remains risk-off. I'd put the odds at about 65% that we see $SI re-test the 21.50 area before the end of Q1, purely based on technicals and the lack of strong fundamental catalysts to prop it up. It feels like a 'dead cat bounce' to me, setting up for another leg down.

1

$ASML มีโอกาสปิดสูงกว่า 1770 ในสัปดาห์นี้ไหม?

ดูจากแนวโน้มวันนี้และช่วง 1741-1771 ผมให้โอกาส 60/40 ที่ $ASML จะปิดสูงกว่า 1770 ภายในสิ้นสัปดาห์นี้ ถ้าตลาดยังเป็นขาขึ้นต่อเนื่อง

-2
CKr/macro-events·by u/chen_kThailand·2moDiscussion

Fed's upcoming commentary and the tech sector's resilience

The market seems to be front-running some of the anticipated Fed commentary later this week, especially after the recent jobs data. You've got companies like $ZS, which is up over 3.88% today, closing in on its day high of 182.00, suggesting that the broader tech sector, at least certain names, might be holding up better than initially feared against the higher-for-longer narrative. While everyone is watching for clues on rate cuts, I'm more focused on the subtle shifts in language regarding inflation and growth. A strong tech print here or there doesn't make a bull market, but it does highlight potential pockets of resilience. I'm keeping my watchlist tight around companies demonstrating strong balance sheets and less sensitivity to immediate rate hikes, as any dovish pivot, even a minor one, could see them re-rate quickly. The key will be if this tech strength is isolated or if it signals a broader shift in sentiment beyond just speculative plays.

0

Odds on $NATGAS topping $3 by year-end?

Watching $NATGAS around the 2.773 mark today, I'm finding myself wondering about its trajectory towards the end of the year. Given the recent summer heatwaves and what looks like a slightly hotter-than-average fall forecast in some key consumption areas, coupled with geopolitical rumblings that always seem to affect energy prices, I'd put the probability of us seeing $NATGAS sustainably above $3 before December 31st at about 40%. It's not a slam dunk by any means, as inventory levels are still decent, but the upside catalysts feel a bit stronger than the downside pressures right now.