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Will a new frontier AI model top the LMArena leaderboard before Q4 2026?

Forecast whether a newly released model takes the #1 spot on a recognised public leaderboard before Q4 2026.

Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if a model released in 2026 holds the #1 overall position on LMArena (or a comparable public leaderboard) at any point before 2026-10-01.
Resolves in 3mo 0 forecasts
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