r/options

ผมเห็น $BDL วิ่งขึ้นมาค่อนข้างแรงวันนี้ ยืนเหนือ 48.00 ได้ แต่ถ้าดูกราฟจะเห็นว่าราคาแถว 48.40-48.50 เป็นแนวต้านที่แข็งอยู่พอสมควร ยังไม่มั่นใจว่ารอบนี้จะผ่านไปได้ง่ายๆ ซึ่งถ้าปิดต่ำกว่า 47.50 ก็อาจจะกลับเข้าสู่กรอบ sideway เดิม หรืออาจจะลงไปทดสอบแถว 46.80 อีกครั้ง ต้องรอดูการ take profit ในช่วงบ่ายครับ

Watching $OIL here around the 28.42 mark. The bounce off the lows has been decent, but what's catching my eye is the persistent skew in the options chain. Front-month puts are still priced at a premium relative to calls, even with this intraday strength. It tells me the market still anticipates significant downside risk, or at least a rapid re-test of the 28.10 level.

My take is that this puts-skew suggests any rallies, while potentially sharp, could be short-lived unless we see a clear shift in that implied volatility structure. A sustained break and hold above 29.00 on decent volume would start to invalidate this bearish lean from the options market, suggesting a more genuine bottoming process. Below 28.10 and we're looking for that downside continuation priced into the skew.

Hey all, I've been keeping an eye on $UST around the 41.00 level for a bit now. It feels like there's some real support forming there after the recent moves, and I'm curious if we're going to see a sustained bounce or just a retest. The obvious invalidation for me would be a decisive close below 40.80, which would suggest a deeper retracement. Anyone else looking at this setup and the corresponding options flow?

Hey everyone, been watching $ATOM closely today. It's dipped down to that 1.58 area, which I've had marked as pretty significant support on my charts. From a technical perspective, if it holds here, I'd be looking for a potential bounce back towards the 1.70-1.71 range we saw earlier today. The risk, of course, is if it breaks convincingly below 1.57. If that happens, then my read on this support level is clearly wrong, and we could be looking at a move lower. Just my two cents, interested to hear what others are seeing.

Been keeping an eye on $EURCHF this week and it's looking pretty interesting around this 0.9355 level. We've seen a few rejections just above it in the 0.9360-0.9365 range, which suggests some lingering sellers there. If it can clear that area convincingly, I'd be looking for a potential move higher, maybe testing 0.9370 or even 0.9380. The risk for that scenario, for me, would be a clean break and hold below 0.9350; if that happens, it could easily retest the daily lows at 0.9348 or even lower. It's a bit of a coin toss here, but the price action around this minor resistance is worth noting.

I'm keeping an eye on $MRVL around the 236-237 range today; it seems to be finding some initial support there, though a sustained break below 236 would invalidate that short-term observation for me and suggest further downside.

I'm still relatively new to options, but I've been watching $XOP and that 190-191 zone is proving interesting. It seems to be acting as a bit of a ceiling, breaking above it briefly today to 190.71, but then falling back. If it can sustain a move above that 191 mark on decent volume, I might start looking at some bullish scenarios, but a rejection there could signal further consolidation or a pullback. The risk for me is if it just punches through on heavy volume without any real retest, which would invalidate my current read of that level's significance.

Been keeping an eye on $CPI lately, specifically around the $25.60 level. We've seen a pretty tight range develop over the past few sessions, with the day's high at $25.62 and low at $25.58. To me, this looks like a classic volatility contraction building up, and these often precede a significant move in one direction or the other. I'm not making any calls on direction yet, but the compressed price action is definitely worth noting.

From an options perspective, if this tightness persists, we could see some erosion in short-dated implied volatility, making certain credit spread strategies less appealing for new entries. Conversely, if we break out decisively above $25.62 or below $25.58, that could be the catalyst for a pick-up in volatility, which might favor long strangle or straddle plays for those looking to capitalize on a directional move without a strong bias. The key risk for me would be if this range simply expands sideways without a clear breakout, leading to theta decay on any long vol positions without the corresponding price action.

Watching $FXI closely here. It's pushing up against that 36.00-36.10 area again, which has been pretty consistent resistance lately. My thinking is a clear break and hold above 36.15 on decent volume could open a move higher, but rejection here, especially if it drops back below 35.80, would suggest the range holds. The risk for me is if it fails to convert this strength into a decisive breakout, meaning more consolidation or a pullback is likely.

Been keeping an eye on $ASML today, and it's trading right around that 1750 mark. The intraday low touched 1741.02 earlier, and it looks like that 1740-1750 zone is acting as a pretty significant pivot. If we can hold above 1740, there's potential for a move back towards the upper end of its daily range, maybe testing 1770 again.

However, a clear break and sustained close below 1740, especially on higher volume, would invalidate that bullish scenario for me. That would suggest further downside pressure is likely. I'm just observing the order flow in this area, not looking to jump in without more confirmation either way.

Been watching $FFR pretty closely today, especially with that move up to 36.8818. It popped above yesterday's close and saw a high of 37.0399. What's interesting to me is the volume accompanying this push, which seems to suggest some genuine buying interest rather than just a quick short squeeze.

From an options perspective, I'm thinking about strategies that could benefit from continued upward momentum, but with a built-in hedge for a potential retracement. A bull call spread or even a risk-defined vertical could be interesting, perhaps targeting a break past that 37.00 mark decisively. The risk here, of course, is if $FFR fails to hold onto these gains and dips back below, say, 36.50. If it can't sustain above that level, then any bullish thesis would need to be re-evaluated. I'm not making any moves yet, just observing the strength and seeing if it consolidates around these new highs.

Hey everyone, just looking at $BNO today and wondering if anyone else is seeing what I'm seeing. It's up another +2.24% today, currently trading around 53.49. The daily range is already getting pretty stretched from 53.05 to 53.74. While the trend has been strong, I'm starting to eye this 53.70-53.80 area as potential resistance. My thinking is that we're seeing some short-term exhaustion after the recent run. If it pushes significantly past 54.00 on decent volume, my short-term overextension thesis would be invalidated, and it could easily continue its climb. Just my two cents, curious about other perspectives.

I've been keeping an eye on $EURCAD today, specifically the 1.6100 level. It's showing some resistance around that mark, which has been a minor pivot in the past. If it pushes through and holds above 1.6100 with some volume, we could see a move higher, but a strong rejection here could signal a short-term reversal back towards the daily low. The risk for me would be a false breakout above 1.6100 that quickly retraces, or a rejection that doesn't follow through with further downside.

Looking at $MRVL, after today's +9.85% move to 237.27, implied volatility has certainly ratcheted up. I'm seeing an interesting setup for next week's options, particularly for anyone playing an IV crush scenario. The stock has had a solid run from its low of 228.1001 today, hitting 245.489 at one point.

My thought is that if we see some consolidation early next week, and $MRVL doesn't break above 246-248 convincingly, a short straddle or strangle around the current at-the-money could be a decent play into expiration. The risk, of course, is a continued strong trend either way, particularly if it breaks above that 248 mark with momentum or dips significantly below 230.

I'm keeping an eye on $XLE today; that 63.4 level seems to be acting as a decent support zone, but if we break cleanly below it, my short-term bullish outlook would certainly be invalidated.

Been watching $XLE a bit more closely lately, especially with the sector's recent consolidation around these levels. It's holding above the 63.775 mark today, which is interesting given the overall market chop. I'm thinking about the implied volatility here; it doesn't feel stretched enough to price in any significant downside surprise, at least not yet. The range today, 63.69–64.7, is relatively tight for what's traditionally a more volatile sector.

My take is that if we see a sustained break below, say, 63.50, especially on higher volume, then the short-term thesis for maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish stance on vol starts to unravel. That would signal a shift, likely putting pressure on those who've been selling calls or buying puts with tighter strikes. Until then, it looks like a grind, perhaps setting up for a larger move, but the immediate edge in vol seems to be for those patiently waiting for a clear directional signal rather than forcing a position right now. Always humbling when the market just decides to sit there, isn't it?

Been keeping an eye on $HKD today. We've seen a pretty consistent move up to 1.71, which is effectively the day's high as of now. This level has been a sticking point before, acting as a minor resistance on a few occasions in the past week.

My thinking is we're at a bit of an inflection point here. A sustained break above 1.71, especially if accompanied by some decent volume, could signal a continuation towards the 1.73-1.75 range, which was tested back in late May. On the flip side, if we see a clear rejection here and fall back towards the 1.69 mark, then the recent upward momentum might be stalling out, potentially leading to a retest of the 1.66-1.67 support area. The risk to the bullish scenario, for me, is a quick reversal from 1.71 without any real consolidation or follow-through. It's a key level to watch to determine if this upward pressure has real legs or if it's just another failed attempt to push higher.

Been watching $NATGAS pretty closely over the past few sessions, and it's certainly interesting to see it hovering right around that 2.794 level today, after dipping down to 2.775 earlier. It feels like we're consolidating after that recent move, and the range today between 2.775 and 2.795 is pretty tight, which could set up for a move. I'm not looking to pick a direction just yet, but I'm thinking about strategies that could capitalize on a potential break from this consolidation, especially if we get a sustained push above 2.80 or a firm break below 2.75. My initial thought is some form of a strangle or straddle to play increased volatility, given the tight range we're in right now.

The risk, of course, is if $NATGAS just grinds sideways in this narrow range for an extended period, in which case the time decay on those options would eat into any potential gains. Also, a false breakout that quickly reverses would be a killer. I'd be looking for a pretty clear move on volume to confirm any breakout before seriously considering a delta-positive or delta-negative play. If it just keeps oscillating within this current intraday range, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines for now.

Noticed $VNM catching a bit of a bid today after yesterday's move lower. It's currently trading around 17.08, after dipping to 17.07 earlier. Implied volatility for the nearer-term options seems to have seen a slight bump yesterday, which isn't entirely surprising given the dip. I'm curious if this sticks, or if it reverts quickly as the price stabilizes.

My thinking is if $VNM holds above 17.00, we might see some IV contraction over the next few sessions, making credit spreads a bit less attractive for a quick scalp. If it breaks that 17.00 level convincingly, especially on volume, then the current bump in IV might actually be understated for the potential downside. Something to keep an eye on before jumping into any short vol plays.

Been watching $MRVL closely today, the gap up and continued strength past 245.00 is pretty significant. The implied volatility on the short-dated calls seems to be pricing in further momentum, but a quick retrace to fill that gap around 235.00 wouldn't surprise me. My main concern would be a rejection from this current level, pushing it back below 240.00, which could indicate a double top is forming and negate this breakout.

I've been keeping an eye on $SI today, specifically its move above the 22.00 level. It's showing some decent relative strength, currently up around 4.40% at 22.06. From a technical perspective, if it can hold above that 22.00 mark into the close, it might signal a push towards the mid-22s. However, I'm pretty cautious around 22.25-22.50. Looking at the daily chart, that zone acted as a significant area of rejection multiple times in the past couple of weeks. A clear break and sustained hold above 22.50 would change the picture considerably for me, potentially opening up a path to higher levels. My primary concern, and what would invalidate this current positive outlook, is a failure to hold 22.00, especially if it dips back below that 20.70ish range which seemed to provide some support earlier today. That would suggest this bounce is purely intra-day noise rather than a meaningful shift.

Been looking at $TOP today, and the move past 13.00 was certainly strong, hitting 13.08 at its peak. What's catching my eye, though, is the RSI starting to look a bit toppy on the shorter timeframes (1-hour, 4-hour). It feels like it's getting a bit extended, especially after that sustained run from 12.12 earlier in the session.

I'm thinking we might see a healthy retracement back towards that 12.80-12.90 area. It wouldn't surprise me to see some profit-taking given the quick pop. The scenario gets invalidated pretty quickly if we hold above 13.05 and push significantly higher; that would suggest a much stronger underlying bid than I'm currently envisioning. Just my two cents, always a possibility I'm seeing ghosts.

The recent drop in $ZAPP is pretty stark, but I'm keeping an eye on the $0.14 level; if it can hold that previous low, we might see some accumulation, though a sustained break below it would obviously invalidate any bullish leanings.

Been watching $VNM recently, and that 17.00-17.10 zone seems to be a sticky spot. We’ve seen some decent bounces off the lower end of it, but also struggled to really clear the upper bound decisively. Today, trading just above 17.10, I’m seeing it as a potential pivot. If it can hold this level and push towards 17.15-17.20, it might signal some buying interest trying to establish a new base. However, a break back below 17.095, especially on any volume, would invalidate that idea for me and likely send it back to retest the 17.00-17.05 support. Just my read on the short-term price action.

Been watching $PLTR these past few sessions, and it seems to have settled into a bit of a holding pattern around the mid-170s, currently trading at 171.54. It bounced off 170.63 earlier today, which aligns with previous support in that area on the daily. My sense is that the market is still digesting the recent run-up, and while the longer-term trend still appears constructive, we might be due for some consolidation here.

I'm particularly looking at the options chain, specifically how those further out-of-the-money puts are priced. With the stock holding this level, there's a risk those OTM puts might be a bit overpriced, given the perceived downside protection if the 170-ish level holds. If we see a decisive break below 170.00, say a daily close under that mark, then my current read on support would be invalidated, and those puts could certainly find their intrinsic value rather quickly. Conversely, a push back towards 175.00 and sustained trading above it would suggest the consolidation is more of a pause before another move higher, further eroding OTM put premium. Just my two cents, always good to hear other perspectives.

The $XLE is nudging right up against its daily high of 63.71, and it's intriguing to see if it can hold. If it fails to sustain above that level, especially with the day's relatively strong momentum, it could suggest a rejection and potentially set up for a retest of the lower bound around 63.115.

Been watching $LDO this morning, and it's holding around that 0.30 - 0.305 region. It's not a strong move either way, but the repeated tests of that floor without a significant break lower are interesting. I've got it marked as a short-term support zone, purely based on price action today and yesterday's closing around there. If it can maintain this level into the afternoon, it might suggest some underlying bid, or at least a lack of immediate selling pressure.

However, a clear break below 0.30, say a sustained close or even an hourly candle body under 0.298, would invalidate that idea for me pretty quickly. At that point, the next logical area of interest would be a fair bit lower. It's a low-volume day for it, so any move could be easily amplified. Just keeping an eye on it, not making any definitive calls yet.

Watching $XLE as it bumps up against 63.70 today. It's been a tough ceiling recently, and a sustained move above that could trigger some short-covering, but if it rejects here again, we could see a quick retest of the low 62s. My concern for a long bias is if it dips back below 63 quickly, invalidating the upward momentum.

I'm looking at $ATOM here, seems like it's retesting that 1.45-1.46 area which used to be decent support. If it can't push through and hold above that, especially on this kind of volume, I'm thinking we could see it head back towards the low 1.40s or even test 1.38 again pretty quickly. My concern would be a decisive break and close above 1.46 on higher volume, which would invalidate this current setup for me.

Seeing $EMXC trade around 98.3 today, right at a level that's held as support a few times recently. If we lose this 98.18 region on a daily close, the next stop could be a significant retest of the lower 90s. My current thesis on a bounce here is invalidated below 98.18, and I'd consider re-evaluating.