Thoughts on $OIL and Volatility Skew
Watching $OIL here around the 28.42 mark. The bounce off the lows has been decent, but what's catching my eye is the persistent skew in the options chain. Front-month puts are still priced at a premium relative to calls, even with this intraday strength. It tells me the market still anticipates significant downside risk, or at least a rapid re-test of the 28.10 level.
My take is that this puts-skew suggests any rallies, while potentially sharp, could be short-lived unless we see a clear shift in that implied volatility structure. A sustained break and hold above 29.00 on decent volume would start to invalidate this bearish lean from the options market, suggesting a more genuine bottoming process. Below 28.10 and we're looking for that downside continuation priced into the skew.