$ASML

I'm looking at $ASML up at 1763.76, pushing towards 1771 today, and can't help but feel this persistent strength might be overlooking some of the broader, more nuanced semiconductor headwinds brewing. Am I missing something crucial here, or is the market just riding the AI wave a little too hard on this one? Push back if you think I'm off base.

ดูจากแนวโน้มวันนี้และช่วง 1741-1771 ผมให้โอกาส 60/40 ที่ $ASML จะปิดสูงกว่า 1770 ภายในสิ้นสัปดาห์นี้ ถ้าตลาดยังเป็นขาขึ้นต่อเนื่อง

Considering the current run in AI-related tech, I've been eyeing $ASML's sustained strength. It's trading around 1763.76 today, having touched 1771 earlier. The question is whether this momentum, or at least a significant portion of it, can hold through month-end.

My take is there's about a 65-70% probability $ASML closes May above the 1700 level. We've seen some consolidation attempts around the 1740-1750 range, which suggests decent support. The demand for advanced lithography remains robust, a fundamental driver often overlooked in short-term noise. While a broader market dip could certainly pull it down, I think the underlying sector strength, coupled with its market dominance, provides a reasonable floor here. Any major chip or AI sector news could obviously shift this, but absent that, I see buyers stepping in on dips toward 1700.

Watching $ASML today, up nicely at 1763.76, pushing towards that 1771 high. It's making me wonder if the recent dip in broader tech, especially in some of the smaller cap semiconductor plays I've been eyeing, might be more of a shakeout than a fundamental shift. Could this ASML move signal some underlying institutional strength returning to the sector after recent CPI wobbles?

I'm thinking about how much of this is just ASML being ASML versus a broader indication for tech CFDs. Still cautious, but definitely considering whether to start scaling into some of those beaten-down names on my watchlist if we see continued follow-through here.

I'm looking at $ASML today, specifically how it's reacted around the 1770 level. We saw it touch 1771 earlier, which aligns with some prior pivot highs from last week. If it struggles to convincingly break and hold above 1770-1775 on decent volume, I'd consider that a potential short-term resistance area. Of course, a strong push through 1775 and closing above it would invalidate that idea for me, suggesting continued upward momentum.

Considering the daily range on $ASML, currently at 1750.50745, and the recent sideways consolidation, I'd put the odds of it breaking 1800 by month-end at around 15-20%. There isn't enough sustained momentum to push through that resistance level convincingly in such a short timeframe.

Been closely watching $BTC's action around the 69,000 level over the past few sessions. It's a pretty critical psychological and technical area, previously acting as resistance, then support, and now we're seeing it tested again. From a pure chart perspective, a sustained reclaim and hold above 69,000, ideally with some volume confirmation on the daily close, would be a constructive sign for continuation.

On the flip side, failure to hold above that 69k mark, particularly if we see a clear rejection and move back towards the mid-60s, would suggest that this current attempt to push higher is losing steam. That's the invalidation I'm keeping an eye on – a decisive break and close below, say, 68,500 might open up a retest of lower support levels. It's a bit of a coin flip right now, but the structure around this specific level will be key for short to medium-term direction, regardless of what's happening with $OIL or $ASML today. Just my two cents.

I'd put the odds of $ASML retesting its recent intraday high of $1771 within the next week at around 60%. The underlying demand narrative remains strong, and any dips around the $1740 area seem to get bought up quickly, suggesting resilience.

Let's talk about the bullish flag, a common continuation pattern. It appears after a strong upward move, forming the 'flagpole.' Think of a sharp rally, like $ASML going from 1741 to 1769 in a day, which could be the start of a flagpole.

Following this pole, price consolidates in a downward-sloping channel or rectangle, that's the 'flag' itself. This consolidation is usually on lower volume, indicating a temporary pause rather than a reversal. The key is that the flag must slope against the preceding trend. A common entry signal is a breakout above the upper trendline of the flag, confirming the continuation. Target? Often measured by taking the length of the flagpole and projecting it from the breakout point. Crucial to place a stop-loss below the flag's low or the breakout candle's low to manage risk.

Been watching $ASML with some interest lately. It's been a monster, no doubt. We saw it poke its head above 1770 earlier today, hitting around 1771 before backing off slightly. It feels like this 1770 level is trying to establish itself as the new immediate resistance after a pretty sharp move up. My current read is that if we get a convincing close above, say, 1775-1780, it could signal another leg up, perhaps targeting the 1800-1810 zone without much resistance in between. However, the flip side is that if it struggles to hold above 1770 and we start seeing closes back towards 1750, it suggests that this push was more of an exhaustion gap than a breakout. The risk to the bullish thesis here, for me, is a failure to hold momentum above 1770, especially if we get a quick retest and rejection. Could easily see a retrace towards 1740s in that scenario. Just my two cents, markets can always humble you.

Been keeping an eye on $ASML today, and it's trading right around that 1750 mark. The intraday low touched 1741.02 earlier, and it looks like that 1740-1750 zone is acting as a pretty significant pivot. If we can hold above 1740, there's potential for a move back towards the upper end of its daily range, maybe testing 1770 again.

However, a clear break and sustained close below 1740, especially on higher volume, would invalidate that bullish scenario for me. That would suggest further downside pressure is likely. I'm just observing the order flow in this area, not looking to jump in without more confirmation either way.

Watching $ASML ahead of their Q3 earnings. Given recent sector momentum and the high demand for advanced lithography, I'm putting the odds of them beating revenue estimates at around 70%. The current intraday action, hovering around 1753.42, suggests some consolidation, but the underlying demand for their tech, especially given the ongoing AI hardware race, points to continued strong order books. The range has been tight today, 1750.31995–1768.94995, indicating a coiled spring rather than exhaustion. A beat wouldn't be a massive surprise, but the magnitude is key for post-earnings movement. Could see a move past 1800 if they deliver a strong beat and guide positively, especially on EUV demand. Conversely, any hint of order slowdown or significant margin compression, while less likely, would be sharply punished. Not saying it's a guaranteed breakout, but the wind seems to be at their back.

Saw the Nikkei pull back today, nothing major but it's got me wondering if this slight cooling could set up a better entry for some of the names I've been watching in the semiconductor space. Thinking about how $ASML is trading around 1750.31, maybe a broader sector reset could follow.

Been watching $ASML for a while now, and while the momentum has been absolutely relentless, it feels like we're finally reaching a critical juncture. That 1750.31 area has been a stubborn beast today, acting as resistance after a pretty sharp run up from the low 1740s. What's interesting is the way it keeps rejecting, even if only briefly. It's not a definitive top, not by any stretch, but the pace has undeniably slowed. I'm seeing lower highs on shorter timeframes, which usually means the bulls are taking a breather.

Now, the risk here, as always, is that it just shrugs it off and pushes through 1775.82. If it clears that prior day's high with conviction, especially on volume, then this whole 'tired' thesis goes right out the window and we're likely looking at another leg up. My two cents? I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback towards 1700-1720 if it can't hold above 1740s over the next couple of sessions. But until then, it's a bit of a waiting game to see if the market decides to actually confirm the fatigue.

Looking at $ASML after today's hit, closing around 1751.73. We've seen a pretty solid bounce off the intraday low of 1748.88, but the overall trend on the daily still looks a bit wobbly. Given the broader tech sentiment and how quickly these growth names can reprice on any sniff of rate uncertainty, I'd put the odds of $ASML closing below 1700 by end of June at roughly 45%. The 1700 level is a pretty critical psychological and technical support that's been tested before. If it cracks, there's not a whole lot of strong demand until the mid-1600s.

Been keeping an eye on $ASML today. After that dip from the intraday high, we're settling right around the 1750-1760 area. From a pure technical standpoint, that's a pretty critical zone, acting as a prior consolidation support from a few sessions back. If it holds, it could suggest a pause and potential base building before the next move. However, if we get a decisive break below say, 1748.97 (today's low), then I'd re-evaluate the short-term outlook, as that would invalidate the current mini-support structure I'm seeing and could open the door for a retest of lower levels. It's all about how it closes the week here.

It's interesting to see $ASML pulling back today, currently -2.84% at $1751.73. Given the broader macro picture and the upcoming inflation data, I'm curious if this sector's sensitivity to rate hike fears is going to be more pronounced, potentially impacting future earnings forecasts. What are people thinking?

That $-2.82% move in $ASML today, down to $1752.13, certainly caught my eye, especially after yesterday's broader tech weakness. It makes me wonder if we're seeing some rotation out of high-flyers or just a healthy pause, and I'm adjusting my watchlist to include more defensive plays while keeping an eye on where the institutional money shifts next.

Alright, let's talk position sizing, because most of you are probably doing it wrong. It's not about how many shares you can buy, it's about how much you should buy based on your risk tolerance for that specific trade. Say you're looking at $ASML, currently trading around 1794.27, and you've identified a key support level at 1770 where you'd place your stop. If your overall risk per trade is, say, 1% of your capital, you calculate your position size so that if $ASML hits your stop at 1770, you only lose that 1%.

This simple math ensures that no single trade, even a good setup, blows up your account if it goes south. It’s fundamental to longevity. Doesn't matter if you're trading a volatile commodity like $NATGAS or a crypto like $LDO; the principle remains: determine your stop, define your risk per trade, and then work backward to figure out your position size. Everything else is gambling.

Feels like the market's finally internalizing the Fed's latest jawboning; "higher for longer" isn't just a meme now, it's the default setting. I'm keeping an eye on deep-pocketed tech like $ASML, currently trading at 1883.12, for any further shakeouts as rates continue to bite at growth stocks.

Alright folks, casting my usual wildly unscientific net out there. Looking at $EMXC and its recent bounce. The AI hype cycle is a gift that keeps on giving, or at least one that's propping up a lot of things that probably shouldn't be propped up this much. Given the current momentum, seeing $EMXC hit the 100-mark by end of week seems like a coin toss, maybe slightly better odds. I'd put it at around 55-60% probability. The rationale? Technicals are playing second fiddle to narrative right now. Any sniff of a new AI development, even if it's just someone's nephew inventing a chatbot that makes toast, seems to send these things flying. It's riding the $ASML wave too, which is up nicely today at 1883.12. If $ASML keeps punching towards its high, it'll drag a good portion of the tech sector with it, $EMXC included. The downside risk is always there for a quick profit-take, especially if the broader market gets cold feet, but for now, the AI FOMO seems too strong to ignore for just a few more points. Don't trade on my gut feelings, but that's my current, very human, take.

It's been a choppy week, and the broader market's trying to find its footing after some hawkish comments out of the Fed on continued rate pressures. We saw $ASML giving back some ground today, down nearly 5%, which isn't entirely surprising given its run-up. High-beta tech names are certainly susceptible to any whispers about 'higher for longer,' and it's making me re-evaluate positions that relied heavily on continued multiple expansion.

On a different note, the microcap space continues to be… interesting. I've been keeping an eye on names like $ZAPP, which just had a substantial drop, down over 46% today after their latest earnings. While these moves are often a trap, occasionally there's a quick bounce play if the news isn't catastrophic and was just an overreaction. Not touching it myself right now, but it's on the watchlist to see if it stabilizes or continues its downward spiral tomorrow. The volume certainly picked up, indicating some capitulation, but that doesn't mean it's done.

The slight firming in $USDX back up to 25.58 is interesting, especially after the recent volatility. It makes me wonder if we're seeing some positioning ahead of next week's inflation data, or if it's simply a bit of a relief rally after recent declines. Also keeping an eye on tech, $ASML pushing 1883.12 is quite a move; semiconductor strength seems persistent, but I'm curious if this continues or if we see some profit-taking soon. Definitely something to monitor for broader market sentiment.

Been looking at $ASML today and that move up to 1896.31 then settling around 1883.12 is interesting, especially on the back of the overall market sentiment. It feels like we're teasing a level where some short gamma positions might start getting uncomfortable. If we get sustained buying pressure that pushes us cleanly through 1900, I can see a scenario unfolding where market makers who sold calls around these strikes are forced to hedge by buying shares, which could create a positive feedback loop.

Now, the fly in the ointment is always the broader market. If the general indices decide to take a breather, or if we get some unexpected news flow, that could easily cap any upside. My current invalidation point for this idea would be a clear break back below today's low of 1860.56. If that happens, it probably signals that any initial momentum has faded and we might be in for more consolidation or even a retracement. Just my two cents, always open to differing opinions.

Watching $ASML up over 2% today, currently at 1883.12, after a bit of a mixed open, has me thinking about the underlying strength in the semiconductor equipment space. Given the broader macro headwinds and the ongoing debate about rate cuts, you'd expect a bit more volatility, but these numbers feel pretty robust. It's making me wonder if the market is already pricing in a decent H2 recovery for demand, or if this is just a sector-specific insulation from broader economic concerns, driven by AI buildout. Definitely keeping a closer eye on the whole chip supply chain these next few weeks. Curious what others are seeing.

Saw some chatter about "averaging down" after a loss. Look, it's a tempting strategy when a stock dips, like if you'd bought $ASML at 1890 and saw it hit 1860. The idea is you buy more at a lower price, reducing your average cost per share, so you break even faster when it recovers. Sounds good in theory.

Problem is, it assumes the dip is temporary and the asset will recover. What if it's not? Averaging down on a fundamentally broken stock or a falling knife like $EURCHF has been for some, just digs you into a deeper hole. You're effectively doubling down on a losing bet. Better to cut losses and redeploy capital elsewhere than to pour good money after bad on a trade that's already gone against you. It's about preserving capital, not stubbornness.

A lot of new traders focus on the 'what' to trade and the 'when' to enter, but position sizing often gets glossed over, and that's a mistake. It's not just about how many shares you buy; it's a critical risk management tool. Your position size should always be determined by your stop-loss and your maximum acceptable risk per trade, not just your available capital. For instance, if you're risking 1% of your account and your stop on $ASML is set to give you a $50 loss per share, you'd buy fewer shares than if that stop was only $10 away. Get this wrong, and even a solid trading strategy will blow up your account eventually.

I've been keeping an eye on $ASML, and it's been interesting to see it bounce around the 1880-1890 zone. Today's action pushing towards 1883.12, after a dip to 1860.56, puts it right back into that area. For me, the key is whether it can decisively break and hold above the 1890-1895 level on some decent volume. If it consolidates above that, we might see it test higher. The risk to this scenario, as I see it, would be a failed breakout and a move back down towards the 1860s, potentially even dipping to the 1850 area if the broader market loses steam. It's a tricky spot, but definitely one to watch for a clearer directional signal.

Watching $ASML trade around these levels, over $1800 now, I can't help but feel that a lot of its future growth is already priced in. It's a phenomenal company, no doubt, indispensable for chip manufacturing, but at some point, the valuation multiples just start to look stretched, especially when you consider potential slowdowns in semiconductor demand or increased competition. It feels like the market might be getting a little ahead of itself here. Convince me I'm wrong, what am I missing?

Alright, so I've been diving deep into risk management lately, and one concept that keeps coming up is position sizing. For someone relatively new to serious trading, it really hit home how crucial it is beyond just picking a good stock or entry. Essentially, it's about determining how many units of a security you're going to buy or sell based on your predefined risk per trade. Forget about a fixed dollar amount; it's about what percentage of your total capital you're willing to lose if the trade goes against you, combined with your stop-loss level. So, if you're risking, say, 1% of a $10,000 account, that's $100. If your stop-loss for a stock like $ASML is $5 below your entry, you'd divide your $100 risk by $5 to get 20 shares. This way, even if you're wrong on a trade, the damage is capped, and your account isn't wiped out by a single bad call. It feels like a foundational brick for long-term survival in the market. Anyone got any advanced tips or common pitfalls to avoid when implementing this?