$ASML

Been trading for about a year now, mostly paper, but started dipping my toes in with small live positions on DAX futures. My question is around position sizing, specifically how you veteran traders adjust it between these shorter-term, higher-leverage products like DAX futures swings and longer-term, more capital-intensive positions in something like $ASML or $SAP. I find myself using a fixed percentage of total capital for both, which feels off for the inherent volatility and margin requirements of futures. Am I overcomplicating this, or is there a common method to differentiate risk allocation for these very different asset classes/timeframes?

Considering the current $ASML run, trading at 1740.99, I'm leaning towards a sustained push above 1800 by end of Q3. The macro backdrop for chip demand remains strong, despite some localized dips. Order books for lithography equipment still look solid. I'd put the probability of $ASML closing Q3 above 1800 at around 65-70%. The downside risk, hitting below 1650, seems less likely, maybe 20%, unless we see a significant shift in global industrial production or a tech sector re-rating. We're not seeing the inventory build-up that could trigger a major correction yet. The daily range (1720.11–1761.31) shows strong buying interest on dips.

It's interesting to see how little sustained impact the CPI numbers had on crude prices today, despite the initial jitters; suggests the market is perhaps more focused on supply-side narratives and global demand resilience than immediate rate hike fears. Keeping an eye on $ASML at 1740.99, wondering if chip demand hints at broader industrial strength that could eventually trickle down to energy needs.

It's hard to ignore $ASML pushing up again, currently around 1740.99. I'm looking at that 1761.31 level from earlier today's high as a key resistance point. If it breaks decisively above that, we could see it head towards new all-time highs. However, I'm also mindful of the sharp reversal we saw from similar levels not too long ago. My concern is a false breakout followed by a quick rejection back into the 1720-1700 range. That would invalidate a bullish continuation for me, at least for the short term, and I'd be looking for consolidation or a deeper pullback.

Hey everyone, been trying to get a better handle on risk-reward ratios lately, especially as I'm looking more into European equities. It's one of those fundamental concepts that seems simple but gets tricky in application. Essentially, it's about evaluating the potential profit of a trade versus its potential loss. If I'm eyeing a long on $ASML, for example, currently trading around $1740.99, and I think it could hit $1800, but my stop-loss is set at $1720, then my potential gain is $59.01 and my potential loss is $20.99. That's a pretty decent risk-reward of about 2.8:1. The idea is to only take trades where the potential upside significantly outweighs the potential downside.

It's not just about finding that ratio; it's about incorporating it into your overall strategy. A 2:1 ratio is generally considered a good minimum, but obviously, the higher, the better. This also ties into position sizing – if you have a lower probability trade with a great risk-reward, you might size it smaller, versus a higher probability one with a more modest but still acceptable ratio. It's helped me filter out impulse trades and really think about the why behind entering a position. Any veterans have specific metrics or mental models they use for European markets or even global markets like $EEM, which is up around $65.64 today, to ensure they're sticking to good risk-reward principles?

Been keeping an eye on $ASML today. It had a decent pop, closing up 2.15% at 1740.99. The intraday low was 1720.11 and it topped out at 1761.31. What's interesting is that while it broke above yesterday's close, it couldn't hold onto those higher levels by the end of the day, indicating some sellers stepped in around the 1760 area.

For me, the key tomorrow is whether we see follow-through buying or if that 1760-1765 zone acts as solid resistance. If it opens strong and clears 1761.31 decisively, I'd be looking for a push towards 1780-1800. However, if it struggles to get past that 1760 region and starts to drift back towards 1740, then today's move might just have been a relief bounce that's fading. The invalidation for the bullish push would be a close back below 1720.11. That would suggest the bears are still firmly in control and today was just noise.

Watching $ASML closely. The chip equipment space is a bit of a mixed bag right now, but ASML seems to be in a league of its own, given the demand for advanced nodes. We're currently sitting around 1740.99. Considering the momentum, recent supply chain improvements, and what I'm hearing from a few industry contacts about H2 CapEx plans, I'd put the odds of ASML breaching 1800 by month-end at about 60%. It’s not a slam dunk, but the upside catalysts seem more potent than the immediate downside risks unless there’s a broader market correction. The key will be if they provide any further positive outlook updates; that's what would really push it.