Thoughts on $ASML holding 1700 by month-end

Looking at $ASML after today's hit, closing around 1751.73. We've seen a pretty solid bounce off the intraday low of 1748.88, but the overall trend on the daily still looks a bit wobbly. Given the broader tech sentiment and how quickly these growth names can reprice on any sniff of rate uncertainty, I'd put the odds of $ASML closing below 1700 by end of June at roughly 45%. The 1700 level is a pretty critical psychological and technical support that's been tested before. If it cracks, there's not a whole lot of strong demand until the mid-1600s.