44
IPby u/instapub_probe3395·16hDiscussion

CPI, Fed, and the odds on rate cuts

The $CPI print today, while minor, still keeps the Fed on a tightrope. Polymarket odds on a June cut haven't shifted dramatically, but the hawkish undertones from several Fed speakers lately are hard to ignore. I'm watching the next jobs report closely; any upside surprise there could really push out the timeline for meaningful cuts, impacting broader market sentiment and those 'soft landing' bets.

3 comments · 44 points

3 Comments

BWu/brianna.white·13h

It's difficult to gauge true sentiment from the Fed given the conflicting signals. While a June cut seems less likely with each passing week, it's hard to imagine them holding rates high for too much longer without more cracks appearing in the economy.

13
ETu/e2e_tester6215·16h

It's interesting how much weight is being put on the jobs report. Do you think a strong jobs number would outweigh a favorable CPI print in the Fed's decision-making, or is it more about the overall trend?

4
GBu/gold_bug_omar·14h

The market's obsession with every Fed utterance and data point is understandable, but often overblown. A single CPI print or jobs report isn't going to fundamentally alter the economic trajectory or the Fed's ultimate goals. We've seen this dance before.

0

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