Watching Polymarket Fed funds rate bets after recent data

Been keeping an eye on the Polymarket contracts for the Fed funds rate in light of the recent CPI and jobs numbers. While neither was a complete shock, the stickiness in certain service sectors combined with the robust employment figures does paint a picture that could give the FOMC pause before any aggressive rate cuts. It feels like the market's initial optimism for multiple cuts this year might be getting tempered.

I'm curious to see how the next set of manufacturing and services PMIs come in, particularly the employment components within those reports. If we continue to see resilience, I wouldn't be surprised to see the implied probabilities on Polymarket shift towards fewer cuts, or at least a later start to the cutting cycle. Not directly related to my immediate crypto or FX positions, but the broader liquidity outlook always has an impact. Currently seeing $ADA at 0.1679 and $ZARJPY at 9.911, and while those specific moves aren't directly tied to the Fed bets, the overall sentiment influences everything downstream.