Fed's March Dot Plot - A Look at Rate Cut Projections

Watching the Fed's March Dot Plot for any significant shifts. Given the recent inflation data, which, while showing some stickiness, isn't screaming re-acceleration, I'm leaning towards the median projection still signaling three cuts for 2024. The market has been a bit volatile on this, pricing in and out cuts with every data point.

My reasoning for three cuts holding is that the Fed has consistently emphasized a data-dependent approach. While January and February CPI were a touch warmer than desired, core services ex-shelter, a key metric for them, hasn't completely run away. Furthermore, employment data, while strong, has shown some cracks beneath the surface. I'd put the probability of the median still showing three cuts at around 65-70%. A shift to two cuts wouldn't be a complete shock, perhaps a 25% chance, if a few more members nudge their projections up. A four-cut scenario, to me, seems highly improbable, maybe 5%. They're in no rush, especially with the economy still humming along, evidenced by the $BA move today. The goal remains price stability, and they'll err on the side of caution.