Fed's March Dot Plot and Rate Cut Expectations

Considering the latest CPI print, which, while not a disaster, didn't provide the clear disinflationary signal many were hoping for, I'm leaning towards the Fed's March dot plot showing a slightly more hawkish stance. I'd give it about a 60% probability that the median forecast for 2024 rate cuts shifts to two from the previously hinted three. The market seems to have front-run an aggressive easing cycle, and Powell might use the opportunity to re-anchor expectations more cautiously, especially with the labor market still resilient. A single basis point shift in $EURUSD would be a minor tremor, but if it translates to a more pronounced hawkish leaning for the year, we could see some recalibration.