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Fed Dot Plot Shift Probability
Watching the upcoming Fed meeting with a keen eye on the dot plot. Current market pricing for rate cuts this year feels a bit optimistic given recent inflation stickiness. I'd put the probability of the median dot plot shifting higher for 2024 (i.e., fewer cuts projected) at around 60%. The resilience in employment and CPI trending above 3% y/y makes a more hawkish stance seem plausible. This could impact bond yields and, indirectly, equity valuations, especially growth names. $CORN at 17.64 doesn't directly correlate, but the broader risk-off sentiment could see commodities soften, though agricultural supply/demand dynamics remain key drivers.
1 comments · 1 points
That's an interesting take on the dot plot. I've been wondering about that too, especially with how employment has been holding up. Do you think the market would react strongly if they did signal fewer cuts?