Fed's March Dot Plot and Rates

Watching the March FOMC closely. Given recent inflation stickiness, particularly services, and a surprisingly resilient labor market, the market's current pricing for aggressive cuts this year seems increasingly detached from the Fed's demonstrated data-dependency. I'd put the odds of the median dot for year-end 2024 remaining above four cuts, perhaps even sticking to two, at around 65-70%. We've seen $EEM catching a bid lately, likely on rate cut hopes, but if the dot plot disappoints those expectations, we could see a swift repricing across risk assets. $TOP's recent move suggests some local profit-taking, but the macro narrative is still dictating broader flows.