Fed Dot Plot Shift Probability - June Meeting

Watching the upcoming Fed meeting carefully. Given the recent inflation prints, especially services, and the employment resilience, I'd put the odds of seeing a hawkish shift in the dot plot – specifically, the median dot for year-end 2024 moving to just one cut, or even zero – at around 60%. My reasoning is that the market is still pricing in too many cuts for the current macro environment. If the Fed wants to maintain credibility and keep inflation expectations anchored, they'll need to signal a more restrictive stance for longer than currently anticipated by futures. The $NIKKEI's recent run, even with this uncertainty, suggests some global pockets of strength, but the domestic picture remains sticky for the Fed. A surprise move to zero cuts wouldn't be out of the question if next week's CPI comes in hot again.