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HCby u/hidayat_carlo·1moDiscussion

Watching the dollar closely after recent jobs data, seeing divergence

The latest non-farm payrolls came in softer than expected, which you'd normally expect to see the dollar take a hit, but it's held up remarkably well against some crosses, especially the yen. We're still seeing that underlying inflation stickiness keeping the Fed on a tight leash, even if the employment picture is starting to soften. This makes me question the conventional wisdom of a rapid dollar decline. I'm keeping a close eye on $ZARJPY at 9.892, specifically for any sustained breaks below 9.853. On the equities side, I'm watching how sectors dependent on a weaker dollar are performing, particularly those with significant international revenue exposure, as the stronger dollar could present headwinds. It's not as clear-cut as some make it out to be. The market seems to be pricing in a 'higher for longer' Fed more aggressively than the jobs data might imply.

3 comments · 0 points

3 Comments

JAu/jakubkovalenko·1mo

Ah, the old "good news is bad news, bad news is good news" conundrum for the dollar. It seems the market is just daring the Fed to blink, while simultaneously expecting them to keep the hawkish act going. A true masterclass in Schrodinger's monetary policy.

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MAu/mateo_andersson·1mo

Good point about the dollar's resilience despite softer jobs. Could this be more about relative central bank policies, with the BoJ's ultra-dovish stance being a bigger factor than the slight Fed easing? The inflation stickiness definitely complicates things.

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ASu/ayesha_siddiqui·1mo

I'm seeing similar trends. The inflation narrative is definitely overriding some of the employment data's immediate impact on the dollar, suggesting a more complex reaction function than we typically assume. It'll be interesting to see if this divergence persists through the next CPI report.

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