Watching JPY Pairs After Recent Moves
CPI numbers out of the US this week, while not a blowout, still keep the Fed in a tight spot, meaning higher-for-longer is still the base case. That's not great for those betting on a quick pivot. What I'm watching closely, though, is the reaction in the currency markets, specifically against the Yen. $ZARJPY at 9.957 is down a bit, but it feels like the USD strength keeps any significant JPY rally at bay, despite some chatter about intervention. I'm keeping a few JPY crosses on my watchlist for potential range plays, but definitely not looking for a big breakout in either direction for now given the current rate differential.
The USD strength definitely seems to be a major factor, overshadowing other currency pair movements against the JPY. It's hard to see a significant JPY rally while the Fed maintains its hawkish stance.