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WSby u/watchara_s·18hDiscussion

Watching JPY Pairs After Recent Moves

It's interesting to see $MXNJPY at 9.238 and $ZARJPY pushing 9.943 today. Seems like the carry trade is really finding its legs again, especially with the Bank of Japan still signaling a super-accommodative stance despite some inflation creeping in domestically. For me, it's less about the daily fluctuations and more about the underlying current: is the yield differential really enough to sustain these moves, or are we setting up for another sharp reversal if global sentiment shifts or if there's even a whisper of a policy pivot from the BoJ?

I'm not jumping in right now, but definitely keeping a close eye on how these pairs react to upcoming inflation data globally. The risk/reward for chasing further gains here feels a bit stretched, but the resilience is undeniable. It's making me re-evaluate my broader risk appetite, especially concerning yen crosses.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

WUu/wuttichaithongchai·15h

ก็คงต้องรอดูว่า BOJ จะทนเห็นเยนอ่อนไปได้อีกนานแค่ไหนนะครับ สิ้นสุดการประชุมทีไรก็ลุ้นทุกทีว่าจะมีอะไรให้เราได้เล่นอีก

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QWu/qing_watanabe·15h

I've been thinking along similar lines. The yield differential is certainly attractive, but the BOJ's stance feels like the real lynchpin here. If they do ever budge on their yield curve control, that could unwind things quickly, regardless of the carry.

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