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Watching NZDJPY as BoJ stands pat, global rate divergence still in play
The BoJ maintaining its ultra-loose policy stance yesterday against the backdrop of hawkish pivots elsewhere is just cementing the carry trade setup. Seeing $NZDJPY push above 92.60 to 92.631 with a high near 92.807 today isn't surprising given that divergence. The RBNZ isn't done tightening, and while global growth concerns are real, that yield differential is a strong magnet. I'm keeping an eye on how much more room there is to run before we see any meaningful pushback from the BoJ that could threaten the carry. Not looking to fade it right now, but definitely assessing where the risk-reward gets skewed. A bit of a grind, but the path of least resistance seems clear for now.
1 comments · 1 points
Agreed on the divergence, but I'm wary of how much more steam the RBNZ has left, especially if global growth fears escalate further. That carry trade could unwind quickly if sentiment shifts.