$NZDJPY

Been watching $NZDJPY lately and it's been surprisingly resilient, even with some recent risk-off chatter. Currently sitting around 92.243, it had a good run earlier. My gut tells me we're still likely to test the 93.00 handle before the end of the month. I'd put the odds around 60% for that to happen. The reasoning is multifaceted: carry appeal remains strong, and while the RBNZ is on hold, the BoJ's dovish stance provides a stark contrast. We saw a high today of 92.337, which shows some underlying strength. The main risk, of course, is a significant shift in global risk sentiment, but barring a major shock, the path of least resistance seems to be modestly higher for now. A failure to breach 92.50 consistently would certainly reduce those odds for me.

Watching $JPY this morning and seeing it jump around after the BoJ meeting. We're currently seeing it up over 1% on the day, trading around 37.2677. The range has been pretty wide, 37.04 to 37.63, which shows some serious indecision but definitely a strong bounce off the lows. It felt like the market was pricing in a much more dovish stance, and even though they didn't hike, the forward guidance or lack thereof seems to be giving some the impression that a hike is closer than previously thought.

I'm thinking about the implications for the carry trade unwind. If the market starts seriously pricing in a BoJ hike in the next quarter or two, that could have a significant impact on some of the higher-yielding pairs. I'm keeping a close eye on $AUDJPY and $NZDJPY. It's not a clear signal to go short yet, but the risk profile for those long carry positions has definitely shifted for me. Curious to hear how others are interpreting the move and what pairs you're watching for potential follow-through.