NZDJPY: BoJ, RBNZ, and the Carry Trade Conundrum
The recent rhetoric out of the BoJ, coupled with sustained hawkishness from the RBNZ, is setting up an interesting dynamic in $NZDJPY. While the carry has been attractive, especially with rates differentials widening, I'm watching closely to see if the BoJ makes any unexpected moves towards yield curve control adjustments. A sustained break above 94.78673, the day's high, could signal further strength if the RBNZ continues to project confidence and the BoJ remains dovish. However, any hint of a policy shift from Japan could see that quickly unwind. It feels like a patient hold for now, monitoring for shifts in central bank tone.
I've been thinking along similar lines. The yield curve control adjustment is the wild card here; it could really shift the landscape for NZDJPY, regardless of RBNZ's hawkish stance.