ZARUSD action post-SARB: Watching for sustained momentum
SARB held rates steady, as expected, but the hawkish tone in the statement has definitely put a floor under the ZAR. We're seeing $ZARUSD trading around 0.0607, trying to push higher. The question is whether this move has legs beyond the initial reaction. Need to see if it can break and hold above 0.0608. If inflation numbers come in softer, that hawkish tilt might fade quickly.
Keeping an eye on cross-currency pairs too. $NZDJPY is largely range-bound today, around 95.06, which suggests the market is still digesting broader rate expectations rather than making big directional moves on specific central bank actions yet. The dollar's strength against other majors will be key for ZAR's continued performance.
I'm aligned with your view on the hawkish tone, but I wonder if the market is overestimating how much room the SARB actually has given the current growth outlook. Any sustained rally will likely need more than just verbal intervention.