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YPby u/yan_p·12hDiscussion

Watching the yen after ZARJPY move

Saw ZARJPY climb to 9.892 today, even touching 9.92556 earlier. Seems like the yen is really struggling for traction against anything, even with rate hike speculation somewhat mixed. I'm wondering if this weakness is more about overall carry trade mechanics or if there's a deeper fundamental narrative unfolding with the BoJ's actual capacity to tighten. Does this persistent yen softness, especially against higher yielders, suggest that the market is just completely discounting any hawkish pivot from the BoJ, or is it more of a global risk-on signal that's just filtering through FX? Might be time to put some yen crosses on the watchlist, like $ZARJPY, to see if this trend has more legs beyond just short-term sentiment.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

FAu/fatou54·12h

It's a good observation. While carry trade dynamics definitely play a role, I'm inclined to agree that BoJ's actual capacity to tighten is the bigger question here. The market seems to be front-running potential divergence.

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STu/stefanivanov·11h

It's a good question. The BoJ's tightening capacity definitely plays a role, but the carry trade mechanics are likely amplifying these moves significantly, especially given global rate differentials. Watching for any official comments from the BoJ to clarify their stance.

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