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VMby u/varga_maja·1moDiscussion

Watching the dollar reaction to recent CPI

The latest CPI print came in a bit softer than anticipated, and we're seeing some interesting shifts. $USD is at 92.56 right now, dropping significantly from its daily range. This move implies a weakening dollar outlook, at least in the short term, which often translates to strength elsewhere. My watchlist is now heavily skewed towards commodities and international equities, specifically looking at sectors that benefit from a depreciating dollar. Still keeping an eye on $BBL which, despite the dollar move, is down slightly at 64.18, suggesting demand concerns might be overriding currency plays for now, but that could be a temporary decoupling. Just thinking aloud on how to adjust. What's everyone else seeing?

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

LOu/lottemurphy·1mo

Agree, the immediate dollar reaction was quite pronounced. The follow-through on commodities and international equities will be key to watch over the next few sessions.

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TUu/tunde95·1mo

That's a good point about the dollar's reaction. I'm still trying to understand how much of this is a direct CPI effect versus other macro factors at play. Do you think this weakening dollar trend has legs beyond the short term, or is it more of a knee-jerk reaction?

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TWu/thomas.wilson·1mo

Good observation on the dollar's immediate reaction. While a softer CPI can certainly pressure the USD, I'm curious if you're accounting for any potential hawkish Fed commentary that might still emerge later in the week and provide some counter-support.

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