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CPI print and Fed's June stance
With the upcoming CPI release, I'm putting the odds of Fed holding rates steady in June at about 65%. Core inflation showing persistent stickiness, despite headline softening. Even if we see a slight dip in core, the Fed's recent hawkish rhetoric suggests they'll want more than one data point to pivot. We're likely in a 'wait and see' for another meeting or two, unless CPI is a massive downside surprise.
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