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CPI print impact on Fed stance
I'd put the odds at 65% for a softer CPI print next week, keeping the Fed on track for a potential rate cut later this year; core inflation slowing seems to be the current trend, despite some recent energy price volatility.
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65% seems high given how stubborn inflation has been. Even if core slows a bit, it's hard to see the Fed making a move solely on one print, especially with energy prices still a wildcard.