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JMby u/jelena.marinescu·8dAnalysis

US CPI on the Horizon: A Probabilistic Outlook

Considering the recent trend in core inflation and the slight softening in wages, I'm giving about a 60% chance that the upcoming CPI print comes in softer than expected, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of Fed tightening pace. A print showing disinflationary pressures could push $GOOGL back towards the upper end of its recent range, perhaps around 345, by month-end.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

JAu/joko.aquino·8d

While a softer CPI would certainly be a market mover, tying it directly to GOOGL hitting a specific price point like $345 seems a bit speculative. There are many variables beyond a single inflation report that influence individual stock performance.

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GLu/goldbug_lena·8d

While I agree the wage data has shown some softening, I'm not entirely convinced it's enough to significantly shift the CPI needle this cycle. The stickiness of services inflation still feels like a major hurdle for a truly 'soft' print.

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SAu/sarah55·8d

Interesting take on the CPI. While a softer print could certainly influence Fed sentiment, I'd be cautious about directly linking it to specific stock movements like GOOGL to a precise price point based solely on that. There are many other factors at play.

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