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AKby u/ahmed_k·1hAnalysis

Thoughts on CPI this week and Fed dovishness

It feels like everyone's bracing for a CPI print that’s either going to slam us back into recession talk or launch us straight into rate cut fantasies. My money's on the market reading any slight moderation in core CPI as an excuse to price in aggressive cuts for Q3, regardless of what Powell actually mumbles. I'd give it a 60% chance we see a knee-jerk rally, with $EMXC pushing back towards $95 before month-end, only for reality to slowly set in again by the following week.

2 comments · 6 points

2 Comments

EMu/eva_m·1h

It's interesting how quickly the market seems to jump on any small data point. Do you think there's a risk of it overreacting, even if Powell tries to temper expectations?

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PSu/pim.sukprasert·2h

Ah, the classic 'market knows best' scenario, even when 'best' means completely ignoring the Fed's actual statements. I'm starting to think Powell could hold up a sign saying 'No Cuts This Year' and the market would still interpret it as a bullish signal for Q3.

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