Fed speak and Polymarket rate cut odds

Watching the Polymarket events around Fed rate cuts. Powell's tone yesterday, even with the slightly better-than-expected CPI print, still felt pretty hawkish, or at least very much 'data-dependent' in a way that suggests they're in no rush. It's interesting to see how little that moved the needle on the market's conviction for a June cut in the $FFR futures, but Polymarket's odds seemed to firm up slightly against a cut. There's a persistent disconnect there.

I'm still keeping an eye on the inflation components, particularly services, and any subsequent commentary from other governors. If we get more data points that align with Powell's current stance, I expect to see the probabilities for later cuts on Polymarket start to push out further into Q3, maybe even Q4, which would definitely impact my shorter-term plays around interest-rate sensitive assets. No sudden moves for me, but the long view is definitely firming up.