Thoughts on Fed's rate path into Q3

Watching the fed's narrative on rate cuts very closely. While the market's priced in a cut by June for a while, recent inflation prints (PCE, CPI) and a surprisingly resilient jobs market make that increasingly less probable. I'd put the odds of a cut in June at less than 30% now. We're more likely to see a hold through Q2, with any potential cut pushed into Q3, possibly September. The Fed seems genuinely committed to seeing more sustained evidence of inflation moving towards target before making any moves, even if it means some short-term economic friction. This could mean a longer 'higher for longer' stance than many initially anticipated, particularly if wage growth doesn't ease up.