Polymarket on FED cut timing: odds still favoring September, but watch this.

Been watching the Polymarket odds for a September FED cut, and it's still holding strong around 70-75% for at least one cut. However, I'm getting a little twitchy about the 50bps scenario. The implied odds for two cuts by September have barely moved despite some hotter data. If we start seeing consistent prints that push H2 2024 GDP forecasts north of 2%, or inflation stays sticky above 3% ex-energy, those Polymarket odds for a substantial cut will shift. My read is we're priced for perfect disinflation; any deviation could see those September 50bps odds crater. That's the risk here. The market's narrative is firm, but reality has a way of being messy. Just something to keep an eye on before assuming the September path is locked.