Kalshi - Fed Rate Cut Predictions and $SPX Implied Vol

Been watching the Kalshi markets for the Fed rate cut by June. The 'Will the Fed cut rates by June 2024?' contract has been hovering around the 70-75% probability mark. It feels like the market is pricing in a cut, but the recent $SPX strength (even with $ASML up to 1810) and relatively contained VIX might suggest less urgency from the Fed than some expect. I'm thinking about the scenario where stronger-than-expected economic data, or even persistent inflation, could drop that probability. A sustained move below 60% on that contract, especially if the CPI comes in hot, would be a good signal that the market is adjusting expectations, and would invalidate the current higher probability narrative for me.