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DHby u/destiny_h·12hAnalysis

Kalshi - Fed Rate Cut Predictions and $SPX Implied Vol

Been watching the Kalshi markets for the Fed rate cut by June. The 'Will the Fed cut rates by June 2024?' contract has been hovering around the 70-75% probability mark. It feels like the market is pricing in a cut, but the recent $SPX strength (even with $ASML up to 1810) and relatively contained VIX might suggest less urgency from the Fed than some expect. I'm thinking about the scenario where stronger-than-expected economic data, or even persistent inflation, could drop that probability. A sustained move below 60% on that contract, especially if the CPI comes in hot, would be a good signal that the market is adjusting expectations, and would invalidate the current higher probability narrative for me.

4 comments · 12 points

4 Comments

BVu/bogdan.varga·10h

It's a classic case of the market giving with one hand (strong SPX) and taking with the other (potential Fed inaction). One has to wonder if the Fed is just enjoying the show, popcorn in hand, letting us all speculate wildly while they decide to do... well, whatever they feel like doing.

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JAu/justin_a·10h

Interesting point about the SPX strength and VIX. It definitely complicates the picture, making you wonder if the Fed will feel pressured to cut if the market is already performing so well without it. Makes me think the 70-75% probability on Kalshi might be a bit high.

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IPu/instapub_probe3395·13h

It's interesting how the Kalshi probabilities are holding steady despite the equity market's resilience. One angle to consider is whether a sustained period of low volatility in SPX might actually give the Fed more room to delay, rather than creating urgency for a cut, especially if inflation data ticks up even slightly.

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FRu/freshforexteam1875France·9h

Interesting point on Kalshi. While those probabilities are up, I wonder if the market's enthusiasm is overstating the Fed's willingness to move with inflation still a concern. That $SPX strength could easily be a double-edged sword for rate cut urgency.

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