Thoughts on CPI and what it means for Kalshi rate bets

The latest CPI numbers definitely threw a wrench into some of the more aggressive rate cut narratives, didn't they? I was looking at some of the Fed rate hike/cut contracts on Kalshi and it feels like the market's been whipsawed a bit. Initially, after the previous data, it felt like a 25bp cut by June was almost priced in, but now with inflation showing more stickiness, especially in core services, I'm seeing those probabilities shift. It makes me wonder about the July contracts too.

I'm not trying to predict the Fed's next move exactly, but rather looking at how the probabilities are moving on Kalshi to get a read on market sentiment. It's less about being right on one specific outcome and more about understanding the nuances of the pricing in various scenarios. It's a great tool for gauging consensus, especially on these macro events. Still keeping an eye on $CSPR, interesting how it's just ticking along today, not much reaction there.