Kalshi contracts on rate cuts seem too optimistic given recent inflation

Watching the Kalshi contracts for fed rate cuts in Q3/Q4 this year has been… entertaining, shall we say. It feels like a lot of folks are still banking on significant easing, despite every data point coming out recently screaming the opposite. CPI isn't budging like they want, and even the anecdotal stuff points to sticky prices. I saw $GLD is still holding up around 377, which, while not a crazy move, does suggest some underlying inflation hedges are still at play, or at least people aren't rushing out of them expecting deflation.

My take is that positioning for aggressive cuts right now feels like a punt, not a strategy. The market might be a bit too hopeful, or maybe I'm just getting old and cynical. I'm keeping a closer eye on contracts related to labor data or even specific sector performance rather than the broad strokes of Fed policy right now. It just feels like there's more edge in parsing the nuances than betting big on a macro-shift that the Fed seems increasingly disinclined to deliver quickly.