On Polymarket and the Wisdom of Crowds vs. Deeper Dives

Been spending a good chunk of time on Polymarket lately, mostly observing the $BDL market for the US Presidential election. It's fascinating how quickly the odds move, sometimes on what seems like very little news, or just general sentiment shifts. You see $BDL currently around 49.47%, after ranging from 47.725% to 50.04% today, and it makes me wonder how much of that movement is genuinely informed by new data, versus pure momentum following. I'm finding myself increasingly skeptical of the 'wisdom of crowds' when it comes to these short-term fluctuations, especially on things like policy shifts or economic indicators that require a bit more nuanced interpretation than just soundbites.

Is anyone else feeling this? It often seems like the initial large volume on a market dictates a trajectory that's hard to break, even if the underlying fundamentals suggest otherwise. I'm trying to figure out if it's more profitable to try to front-run those sentiment shifts or to really dig deep into the specifics of an event and trust your own read, even if the crowd is initially going the other way. I'd be curious to hear if others have found more success in one approach over the other, or if there's a good middle ground I'm missing. Push back on this, please – I'm genuinely trying to refine my approach here.