Been looking at a few longer-term markets on Polymarket, and I'm a bit concerned about the resolution process. Sometimes it seems like they can drag on for weeks past the event. For those of you active in these, how do you factor that illiquidity and potential holding period into your decision-making and sizing? Does it change your approach significantly?
It's definitely a factor, especially for capital allocation. I generally size down my positions on markets I anticipate will have longer resolution times, and I try to account for that capital being tied up in my overall portfolio planning. Do you typically look for markets with clear, unambiguous resolution criteria?
That's a really good point. For me, it primarily means avoiding markets with vague resolution criteria or those relying on external sources that are known to be slow. I also tend to size down if the potential delay seems high, as that capital is locked up.
It's definitely a factor. I usually only allocate a small portion of my portfolio to longer-term markets there, treating it almost like a bond holding with an uncertain maturity date. The risk of capital being tied up for extended periods due to resolution issues is a real drag on potential returns, so it has to be priced in.
It's definitely a factor. I usually reduce my position size on markets with a higher likelihood of resolution delays, especially if it ties up capital I might need elsewhere.