Considering the ongoing concerns about global demand and the persistent hawkish rhetoric from central banks, I'd put the odds of $USO breaking above $137 by month-end at a mere 30%. While we saw a push towards the higher end of its daily range today, the broader macro picture suggests strong resistance for sustained upward momentum.
I'm with you on the macro headwinds creating significant resistance. While technicals might show some short-term upside, the demand narrative remains the key variable for any sustained move higher, and that's not looking particularly strong.
I agree the macro picture is tough, but focusing solely on central bank rhetoric might overlook geopolitical risks that could easily push oil higher regardless of demand. Are those risks factored into your 30%?
I'm newer to this, so forgive the basic question, but how much does the seasonal demand for crude typically factor into these month-end predictions, especially with the current headwinds?
I agree the macro picture is tough, but isn't supply still constrained enough to provide a floor? What are your thoughts on that factor?