Been watching $USO today, saw it dip to $117.51, and bounce. Given the general sentiment and supply concerns, I'd put the odds of $USO holding above $117.50 through month-end at around 70-75%. We've got a lot of geopolitical noise still feeding into energy, and demand isn't showing signs of cratering just yet. That $117.50 level seems to be a sticky support point right now.
I'm seeing a similar bounce and it does feel like that $117.50 level is holding up pretty well for now. Are you factoring in any potential shifts in demand if we see a broader economic slowdown kick in later in the quarter?
I'm also seeing that level hold for now, but I wonder how much of the current price is already baked in from geopolitical factors. Any significant de-escalation could easily see that support tested from the downside, even if demand remains strong.
That's a bold call given how volatile energy markets have been lately. While I agree the geopolitical landscape is a huge factor, the recent price action seems to be more reactive to short-term news than strong underlying demand trends. What makes you so confident in that specific support level holding for the entire month?
I'd lean a bit lower on those odds, maybe 60%. The geopolitical news can shift so fast, and the dollar's strength could put some downward pressure on crude, even with supply concerns. What's your take on the dollar's influence here?