USO's Push Towards $130 by Month-End

Been watching $USO quite closely today, currently up at 127.61. There's a noticeable tailwind from the broader energy complex, and the daily range pushing up to 127.83 shows some conviction in this move. Given the current geopolitical landscape and what seems like persistent demand-side strength despite inflation concerns, I'm leaning towards a sustained push.

My take is there's about a 60-65% probability $USO could touch or exceed the $130 mark before the end of the month. The reasoning is multifaceted: we're seeing continued pressure on supply chains, inventory reports have been mixed but generally show a tightening, and the technical setup on the daily charts suggests a potential breakout from its recent consolidation range. A break above today's high with conviction could quickly open up the path to $129 and then $130. The alternative scenario, a pull-back, would likely see support around the 125 area, but the momentum feels tilted to the upside right now. This isn't a trade call, just an assessment of the probability based on the signals I'm seeing.