USO's next leg up, or a trap?

Watching $USO with interest today, closing strong at 118.87. We've had a solid run lately, but the question is sustainability. Looking at the charts, a retest of 120 seems highly probable within the next week, maybe even pushing to 122 by month-end. I'd put those odds at about 65%.

Why? Primarily the supply side concerns aren't going away, and we're seeing some general risk-on sentiment in broader markets that could spill over, evident in today's $SPCX move. The current price action suggests momentum is still there. However, the other 35% factors in the potential for a swift reversal if we get any significant hawkish surprises from upcoming Fed rhetoric or an unexpected build in inventory data next week. So, while I lean bullish short-term, I'm not blind to the headwinds. Definitely not a set-it-and-forget-it play.