Odds on $OIL touching 30 before month-end

Looking at the current $OIL print at 28.42, with a daily high just under 28.45, I'd put the odds of seeing 30 before July close at around 35%. While the recent push shows some buying interest, the overall macro picture still screams demand destruction. Sure, we had a decent bounce today, but that's after a string of lower closes. We'd need some significant, unexpected geopolitical catalyst or a major production cut announcement to really break through this resistance convincingly. Otherwise, it's just noise within a downtrend, and I expect overhead supply to cap any rallies around 29-30.