Oil's Next Move: Revisiting the 30-35 Range by EOM

Watching $OIL pretty closely here. We've seen some good momentum pushing it up, currently at $28.42, and the intraday range shows we're testing the upper end of its recent consolidation. The question is whether this move has legs or if it's just another head fake before settling back.

My take is there's a roughly 60% probability we see $OIL re-entering the $30-$35 range before the end of the month. The reasoning is multifaceted. First, despite the recent bounce, we're still fundamentally in a supply-glut scenario, but demand signals are improving slightly, even if not drastically. The daily candle's strength today is notable, but it's really the broader economic sentiment that will drive this. Any hints of continued global recovery or even just a less negative outlook from major central banks could easily provide the tailwind needed. Secondly, we're seeing some positioning unwinds in other commodities that could spill over, creating a bit of a short squeeze on the way up. It's not a conviction long call, just a read on the probabilistic outcome given current market structure and potential macro catalysts. The 40% chance of failure still keeps me wary, probably sending it back to retest the low $20s, especially if any negative data point drops or if OPEC+ talks falter again. But for now, the path of least resistance feels higher, at least for a few bucks.